Lightning Strike in North Carolina, May 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE. SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW
850 MB OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOUT 1 OR 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN MINS THIS MORNING. THE GFS DOES
WRING OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN SRLY UPSLOPE ALONG THE ERN
ESCARPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
NAM/SREF/GEFS AND WILL BE DISCARDED FOR NOW.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE MOVE
TUE...PUSHING INTO THE NC MTNS DURING THE AFTN AND BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH IT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE TUE AFTN AS
THE TROUGH SHARPENS TO THE WEST...AND THE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLID PRECIPITATION WILL BE POST FRONTAL.
THIS SHOULD PERMIT SOME WARMING ACROSS FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
SECTIONS TO ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THERE. THE NAM IS
THE MOST UNSTABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG BY
MID AFTN...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO EXCESSIVELY HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH
IMPROVING SHEAR AS THE 850 MB FLOW BACKS TO ALLOW STRONG MULTICELL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...FROM MID-EVENING TUESDAY ONWARD...INSTABILITY
PROGS DEPICT A QUICKLY STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...LIKELY THE RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD OVERTURNING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN AND SFC DWPT DROP IS SLATED FOR THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER STEEPENING LLVL LAPSE RATES AND UPPER
TROUGH/COOL POOL PASSAGE WILL BE ENUF TO DEVELOP LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NC MTN UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SMALL
POPS WILL REMAIN.

CAA/LLVL MIXING CONTINUES THRU WED NITE AND SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AS WELL. LATEST MOS BLEND CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZING THREAT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NC MTNS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TO
RESULT IN SUNSHINE FOR THURSDAY AS MAX TEMPS REBOUND CLOSER TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY IS HAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE EXT RANGE. OVERALL THE
MEAN SFC/H5 FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED WNW/LY AS A COUPLE S/W TROFS
AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL CROSS THE NRN ZONES FRI. GOOD
DYNAMICS AND Q/CONV WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO
LIMITED TO WARRANT ANYTHING ABOVE ISOL -SHRA/TSTMS FOR THE NC MTN
SPINE ZONES. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN
BUT THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWFA. SOME
MEASURE OF GOM MOISTURE SHOULD BE ADVECTED AROUND THE LLVL
RIDGE...SO THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTN COUNTIES. WITH GOOD HEATING
SUN...SOME ELCAPE COULD BE REALIZED ABOVE THE CAP AND THE PRODUCTION
OF GENERAL TSTMS IS PROBABLE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL WARM A
BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGHS FRI RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TO HIGHS SUN/MON 5
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. REMAINING FEW STRATOCU
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WITH A DIMINISHING S WIND. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO A
LOW CLOUD CEILING IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER BET. THE LAMP APPEARS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AGAIN WITH ITS IFR CEILING AND PREFER TO LIMIT
RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR FOR THE TIME BEING. ONCE THE LOW CLOUD DECK
FORMS...IT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY...17Z...BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT AND LIFTING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY
NOT MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SO WAS
NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...S TO SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO GUSTS WERE ADDED AFTER 21Z...
EVEN THOUGH THEY MIGHT BEGIN EARLIER.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD CEILING...LIMITED TO MVFR FOR NOW...IN
THE 07Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER AROUND MIDDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. KAVL HAS BY
FAR THE BEST CHANCE AND MVFR VIS WAS INTRODUCED IN RAIN SHOWERS BY
21Z.  FOR THE TIME BEING...THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH A VCSH AND CB
CLOUD GROUP E OF THE MTNS. SOME TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSS THE
AREA. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THU INTO FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-031930-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
317 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION...GIVING RISE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-031930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
317 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.