Damaging Winds in New York, August 9, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER WILL APPROACH TOMORROW,
ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND BRINGS QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
RAIN HAS BEEN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE QUIETING DOWN FOR THE NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND TODAYS LOW WILL BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA. MODELS DISAGREE ON CAPE
VALUES FOR TOMORROW. GFS, SHOWING ONLY AROUND 400 TO 500 JOULES IS
MUCH LOWER THAN THE NAM, SHOWING UP NEAR 1500 JOULES. HAVE CHANCE
POPS WITH MAINLY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

ONCE THIS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD
MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE POPS ARE KEPT LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY WORDING OUT OF
THE FORECAST, THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A POP UP
SHOWER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...DRY WEATHER STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE WE TURN
UNSETTLED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP BY MONDAY WITH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN ALL
SHOWING THE H5 TROF AXIS OFF THE DELMARVA BY 12Z...WITH THE
PREVIOUS AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE EURO BEING ABOUT 300 MILES FARTHER
WEST WITH THE TROF OVER WV. THE EURO WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONGST ALL OF THE MODELS OUTSIDE OF THE EURO...DECIDED
TO GO DRY FOR MONDAY BASED ON THIS. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH MID- WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW...

HEIGHTS RISE BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PERHAPS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND TROF DIGS ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHCS FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF FEATURES A CLOSED LOW THAT TRANSLATES FROM ERN
LAKES TO CENTRAL NYS BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SFC LOW PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW AVG,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP AND MORE
CLDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM THROUGH 12Z
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WHERE THE RAIN MAY BE A BIT HEAVIER...FROM KITH
TO KSYR...SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. BEYOND
THAT AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST...SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. A BETTER SHOT AT MVFR
CIGS...AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR WILL COME TONIGHT. I DID
INCLUDE A CB GROUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDER IS A POSSIBLITY
BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH TS.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS VEER INTO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING...AND
REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT INTO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN
SHWRS/TSTMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...VFR. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN DAY DUE TO SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...HEDEN/JML
AVIATION...HEDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

NYZ015>018-091815-
CAYUGA NY-ONONDAGA NY-SENECA NY-YATES NY-
110 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAYUGA...NORTHEASTERN
YATES...NORTHERN SENECA AND NORTHWESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

* AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FERGUSON
  CORNERS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BELLONA STN AND DRESDEN AT 115 PM EDT...
  WILLARD AT 120 PM EDT...
  ROSE HILL AND MAC DOUGALL AT 125 PM EDT...
  FAYETTE AND WATERLOO AT 130 PM EDT...
  SENECA FALLS AND CANOGA AT 135 PM EDT...
  CAYUGA AND LEHIGH VLY JCT AT 140 PM EDT...
  FOSTERVILLE AND MONTEZUMA AT 145 PM EDT...
  THROOPSVILLE AND AUBURN AT 150 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4277 7699 4302 7696 4303 7650 4323 7647
      4324 7631 4303 7611 4257 7709 4276 7728

SLI