Flash Flooding in New Mexico, August 5, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER TREND...WHICH ACTUALLY BEGAN TO REAR ITS AHEAD A BIT THU...
WILL ACCELERATE PERHAPS A BIT TODAY...BUT MORE SO OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY INCREASES ITS GRIP OVER DESERT SW.
WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ZONE OF SLIGHTLY TO
MODERATELY INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE NW HALF OF THE STATE.
FOR THAT REASON DID NOT LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BETWEEN THE
DIVIDE AND CENTRAL NM. THE NEW UPPER HIGH CENTROID STILL EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN S CENTRAL NM AND SE AZ OVER NEXT
48 TO 72 HRS. THUS WESTERLIES WILL...DAY BY DAY...FORCE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO DRY FURTHER ACROSS THE N HALF TO TWO THIRDS
OF THE STATE. EARLY MORNING H2O SAT LOOP SHOW DRY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIRALREADY ENTERING NE AZ. 500 MB TEMPS TO WARM 2 TO 3
DEGREES BETWEEN WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH...COMBINED WITH
THE DRYING... SHOULD CERTAINLY SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO A
GREAT DEGREE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
DECIDED TO TRIM POPS A BIT FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE N. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND
UPWARD SLOWLY DURING THIS DRYING PERIOD BEFORE STABILIZING EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE EARLIER PROGGED UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND PCPN FOR
ROUGHLY W HALF OR SO OF FCST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...GFS STILL IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION DESPITE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DISLODGING
UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST. IT SHOWS LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. BUT BOTH THESE ISSUES MAY WELL BE AN
ARTIFACT OF THE MODEL TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...SO KEPT POPS
QUITE LOW FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME PERIOD.
EUROPEAN KEEPS MUCH DRIER SCENARIO OF MOST OF STATE WHILE DRIFTING
UPPER HIGH TO VICINITY OF 4 CORNERS. OH WELL.

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&&

.AVIATION...
THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS.  THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT ISOLD/SCT
TERRAIN DRIVEN STORMS ACROSS SRN/WRN NEW MEXICO. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME SHORT
DURATION MVFR VIS/CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS RANGING
FROM 35-45KTS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY LATE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE ERN PLAINS AFTER 06Z.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING TREND TO BEGIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TODAY AND WORK EAST AND
SOUTH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY LOCALES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
TO MID 20S...WITH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THE DRIEST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ARE IN AND AROUND
THE SRN/SWRN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL DAYBREAK IN THE ERN PLAINS. STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE
FROM THE SW TO NE. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW SO WETTING
RAINS MAY PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE PCPN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY CLIP THE NE PLAINS...
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAKE A HIT STATEWIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO THE UPPER GILA REGION. HAINES
INDEX IS EXPECTED TO RESPOND HIGHER.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE UPR HIGH
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAT WILL WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY AUGUST
AVERAGES. LARGEST SEPARATION BETWEEN NORMALS AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAKE A HIT...WITH
MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE...AND POCKETS OF SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER
THE SANGRES AND UPPER GILA REGION SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. WETTING
FOOTPRINTS SHOULD NOTABLY DECREASE ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD...AND THESE MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH STILL. POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO FOR MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...SQUASHING AN
OPPORTUNITY OF GOOD MOISTURE SURGES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BOUTS OF
BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONTS INVADING THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. OVERALL...RECYCLE
MODE WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER FOR NEW MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  93  63  94  59 /  20  10   0   0
DULCE...........................  88  52  89  50 /  20  20   5   0
CUBA............................  86  56  88  54 /  20  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  87  55  89  54 /  20  10   5   0
EL MORRO........................  82  52  84  50 /  20  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  86  56  88  54 /  20  20  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  83  56  86  55 /  20  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  91  63  93  63 /  20  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  80  50  82  48 /  30  20  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  62  84  62 /  30  20   5   0
PECOS...........................  84  58  85  57 /  40  30  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  52  84  51 /  40  30  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  74  49  76  48 /  50  30  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  77  49  77  48 /  50  30  20  10
TAOS............................  87  54  89  53 /  30  20  20  10
MORA............................  82  52  82  53 /  30  30  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  90  60  92  59 /  20  20   5   0
SANTA FE........................  87  60  89  60 /  30  20   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  90  62  91  61 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  91  65  94  64 /  20  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  70  93  69 /  10  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  67  96  67 /  10  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  66  97  65 /  10  20   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  93  66  95  64 /  10  20   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  95  63  98  62 /  10  20   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  94  65  96  65 /  10  20   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  61  92  61 /  30  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  90  61  92  60 /  20  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  87  56  89  56 /  20  30  20  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  61  87  62 /  30  30  20  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  90  62 /  30  30  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  92  65  93  66 /  20  30  10   0
RUIDOSO.........................  82  59  82  59 /  30  20  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  89  59  89  59 /  30  30  20  20
RATON...........................  94  61  94  60 /  40  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  93  61  94  60 /  30  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  59  88  58 /  30  30  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  93  66  94  67 /  20  30  20  20
ROY.............................  92  65  92  64 /  20  30  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  97  72  97  72 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  95  69  96  69 /  10  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI....................... 100  71 100  71 /  10  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  98  70  97  71 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  99  71  98  71 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
ROSWELL......................... 101  73 102  73 /   5  10  10  10
PICACHO.........................  94  65  94  66 /  10  20  20  20
ELK.............................  87  61  88  61 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

CORRECTION TO CHANGE DAY SEVEN FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.

NMZ501>540-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
530 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT RATES OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH PER
HOUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DRAINAGE PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP
IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROUND HAS ALREADY BEEN SATURATED BY RECENT
RAINFALL. RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
HEAVY RUNOFF OR EVEN VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS ON THE SCAR. HAIL TO DIME SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER AND
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTHERN GILA REGION AS WELL AS IN AND NEAR LINCOLN COUNTY
DURING THE WEEKEND.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER FLASH
FLOOD AND HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED.

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