Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 29, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
329 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
AS THE MONSOON FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD TO AFFECT ALL
OF THE SILVER STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING...REMNANTS OF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN NYE COUNTY LAST EVENING AS THE MONSOON
SURGED ALONG A VORT CENTER. CLEAR ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST MONSOON PUSH IS ABOUT 200 MILES AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LKN CWFA AND TROPICAL STORM DON
MOISTURE WILL BE GETTING INFUSED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. A
BROAD AREA OF VERY-LOW-AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FOR ABOUT 3K
MILES IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING UP THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE TODAY...HELD IN CHECK BY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD FIRE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CENTERED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE 4-CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY AS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC DEFORMATION ZONE DISSOLVES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 TODAY AS THE RIDGE EAST OF
THE 4-CORNERS AREA BEGINS AMPLIFICATION. TS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MONSOON FLOW OF MOISTURE
STRENGTHENS...PUSHING THE UNSTABLE AIR UP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY
DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BE ACTIVE IN ALL ZONES. THE BEST
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY IS SHOWING UP OVER NW NYE COUNTY AND
LANDER COUNTY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT AREA WILL LIKELY
BECOME STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
SATURDAY WITH COPIOUS CLOUD COVER AND COOL DESCENDING AIR WITH
GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION...OR LACK THEREOF...WILL BE A CONCERN
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLASH-
FLOODING. PW VALUES ARE BOUNCING OFF ONE INCH AS FAR NORTH AS
INTERSTATE 80 ON SATURDAY SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND THE 588 DAM
NORTH OF THE LKN CWA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IN HIGH
GEAR...EXPECT INCREASING PWS AND VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA...THE MOIST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF THE CWA EACH DAY AS THE AIR-MASS  BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE.  HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
NORTHERN NYE WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CAPES WILL MATERIALIZE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON DECK FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...EXPECTING WET THUNDERSTORMS WITH PW VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN .8 TO ONE INCH...AND WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH
POSITIVE MOISTURE ANOMALIES. GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT A TROF MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE FETCH OF MOISTURE...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING
OFF MONSOONAL TO LKN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE
COUNTY...AS SUCH...VCTS FOR KELY AND KTPH.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BEGINNING TODAY AND THE MONSOON FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED
TO FIRE ZONES 455 AND 457 THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE.
CONVECTION WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SPREAD TO
ALL AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH HUMIDITY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WET NATURE OF STORMS WILL
HELP REDUCE THE RISK OF FIRE STARTS. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK MONDAY WITH SLOWLY DRYING CONDITIONS WEST TO
EAST.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

92/97/97/92