Damaging Wind in Nevada, August 6, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1158 PM PDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AUGUST WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...DECIDED AREAL COVERAGE OF DRY LIGHTNING
WILL SURPASS 15% AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 18HRS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...THUS ISSUED A RFW FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR FWZ
468/469/470.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 1052 PM/

UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO EXPAND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AS WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW FIRE STARTS THIS
EVENING...AS VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT FIRE
STARTERS. EXPECT NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 3 AM PST...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
REMAINING BELOW 3% NORTH OF I-80. ANY DRY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN
HAVE VERY ERRATIC WINDS WITH THEM AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO
FAR TONIGHT WITH MAX OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 921 PM /

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING AS WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND ELKO
COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 334 PM /

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
FEATURES A BROAD TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN.
EXPECTING WEAK IMPULSES TO GET KICK OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE SILVER
STATE...JUSTIFIED ENHANCING THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...
ALTHOUGH THE BASES WILL BE ELEVATED...VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED.
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THRU THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS
BRUSHES NORTHERN NV EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN STRENGTHENING RIDGE
FORCES SUBTROPICAL JET FURTHER NORTH. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS THIS WEEK FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CYCLE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WESTERLIES AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. POOR RH
RECOVERY EXPECTED AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV.

MOST OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OCCURS FROM THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY IN THE
DAYTIME. COULD SEE LOTS OF MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS BY THE WEEKEND.
700 MB THETA E RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN NV AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY...SO WOULD EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS. MONSOONAL
FLOW COULD BRUSH EXTREME EASTERN NV BY SATURDAY AND BRING A THREAT
OF CONVECTION. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CUT
THIS FLOW OFF FROM OUR CWFA AT THIS POINT...BUT THE THREAT IS
CERTAINLY ALIVE AND WELL.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME CONVECTION ALONG
NORTHERN ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY NEAR EKO. WEAK
TROF BRUSHES NW NV TONIGHT AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR WMC TAF SITE LATER TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD RANGE FROM 150
TO 200 KFT MSL. CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY ELKO COUNTY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...AT THIS TIME...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A MILD PATTERN
ON TAP. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT
LOW VALUES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WITH PWS BELOW .20 OF AN INCH OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. NIGHT-TIME RECOVERIES RANGING BETWEEN FAIR AND
POOR.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR EXTREME EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY...HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

&&

95/85