Hail in Nebraska, June 1, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CDT WED JUNE 01 2011

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
TODAY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO HAD BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA WHICH NOT
ONLY HELPED TO BRING NORTH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT BROUGHT HIGH
DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED FROM IMPERIAL TO
THEDFORD AND AREAS TO THE EAST. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...MU
CAPE VALUES WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5000 J/KG. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEER OF
35 TO 45 KTS...AND FROM LOOKING AT THE WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG A DRY LINE FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA IS CO-LOCATED WITH
FOCUS OF 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE.
THEREFORE ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION THEN MOVING EAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
PRETTY WEAK SO THINK STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE RATHER SLOW.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. UPPER RIDGE BREAK DOWN AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GOING HIGHS FROM 90 TO 97 LOOK APPROPRIATE. AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE...ESPECIALLY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STARTING
IN SHERRY COUNTY AND TRACKING EAST. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EVENING
OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A COOLDOWN OF 10-12 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
WITH FRONT FORECAST TO STALL IN NORTHERN KANSAS...STORM POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH NEAR SRN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS AGAIN TO REFIRE
ACROSS THE SOUTH. NO SIGNALS FOR STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS AND PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. A HEATUP AGAIN IN STORE BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER 80/LOWER
90S POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.  MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES STILL INDICATE
MAINLY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FAVORED SUNDAY MONDAY IN SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY STILL QUITE WARM AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PASSING THUNDERSTORM AROUND KLBF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR THROUGH
MID DAY ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE
KLBF TAF. WINDS WILL BECOME PRIMARILY SOUTH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE WINDS WILL
STAY ABOVE 12KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME CRITICAL OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE LOW AND MID 90S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREAS OF CONCERN WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW 40S. IT MAY NOT GET THAT DRY...BUT IF IT WOULD HAPPEN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WOULD DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...WINDS LOOK
TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 30 IN SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT FUELS...GRASSES ARE QUITE
GREEN SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE HOT AND DRY DAYS TO DRY OUT
FUELS TO BRING ABOUT EXTREME FIRE SPREADING POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY...FURTHER
RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED RELEASES CONTINUE
FROM KINGSLEY DAM. IN ADDITION THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM
OF THE PLATTE RIVER WILL ALSO SEE SLIGHT RISES IN THE NEXT WEEK AS
THIS WATER MOVES DOWN THE RIVER SYSTEM. UPSTREAM OF LAKE
MCCONAUGHY...LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS RELEASES
HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM RESERVOIRS IN WYOMING.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SEEING RISES IN THE COMING WEEKS
AS THE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT SURGES DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THOSE AREAS IN THE NEXT WEEK.

AS THE SNOW MELTS FROM THE MOUNTAINS...PLANNED RELEASES FROM THE
RESERVOIRS ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER COULD BE ALTERED WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE RIVER RISES AND TO WHAT STAGE. THIS
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...BROOKS/ROBERG
AVIATION/HYDROLOGY/FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
417 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-022130-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
417 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011 /317 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO THEDFORD...THEN WILL TRANSITION
EAST. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT IT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER IN THE
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RISING ABOVE 8.0 FEET THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

BROOKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

NEZ071-012130-
FRONTIER NE-
400 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUSTIS...OR 19 MILES EAST OF
CURTIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  EUSTIS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

STOPPKOTTE