Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, August 8, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
314 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
312 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING.  A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THE STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MORE CAPE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THAT AREA.  AS DAY TIME HEATING AND THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE SUBSIDE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
OVERNIGHT SOME AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LIFTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.  DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL HELP FUEL THE THUNDERSTORMS.  AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES THE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER 850 WINDS SHIFT
EASTWARD.  MODELS ALSO SHOW STRONG 700MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS IN
THAT AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AM THINKING THE
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO END OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE
700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.  WITH THE PROLONGED RAINFALL
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA...FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS.  WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR NOW AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF
RAINFALL OVER THOSE AREAS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...COMING TO AN
END BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.  KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
WESTERN CWA AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AS A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.  KEPT IN ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THE EVENING FOR ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION THAT MOVES EAST DURING THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
312 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.  HAVE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL EVERY DAY AS A MINOR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER ALL OR
PART OF THE CWA ALMOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FRIDAY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...BRINGING WITH
IT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDE SPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER
OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH SATURDAY.
DURING THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST.  MONDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN.

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
1118 AM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER CHANCES NEAR KMCK THAN KGLD. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
CONSIDERING MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS...HAVE BROUGHT BOTH
TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING...BUT FOG SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS MIXING INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 AM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1026 AM MDT MON AUG 8 2011 /1126 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL....DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
344 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

NEZ079-082245-
DUNDY-
344 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 340 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHAMPION...OR 11 MILES WEST
OF IMPERIAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
NEAR BENKELMAN AROUND 445 PM MDT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4016 10132 4015 10133 4000 10161 4035 10187
      4036 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 326DEG 24KT 4050 10183

THEDE