Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, February 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

INCREDIBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.  THIS GULF AIR MASS
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE OZARKS REGION THIS MORNING...CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM...AND MOISTURE LEVELS TO DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE.

THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AN EPISODE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STILL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORMS.  THERE REMAINS SEVERAL FACTORS THAT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED...BUT NOT ZERO...AND HERE IS WHY.

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NEAR THE INTERSTATE
44 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT.  NOT ONLY IS THIS TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH FOR
A HIGH FREQUENCY OCCURRENCE OF TORNADOES FOR THE OZARKS...BUT THE
LOW QUICKLY REDEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH DISTORTS LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THIS DOUBLE LOW / POSITIVE TILTED
STRUCTURE...ACTING TO LOWER THE RISK FOR TORNADOES.

WE ALSO FEEL THAT A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT BLOWS OFF THE
TEXAS CAP ROCK REGION WILL CAP THE WARM SECTOR OFF FROM DEVELOPING
STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.  THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTS THAT
DIURNAL STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS EML...OR
THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THESE STORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.  THESE STORMS COULD TRANSLATE FURTHER EAST INTO
THE OZARKS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME.

A SECOND AREA OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.  GIVEN THE FAST STORM
MOTIONS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE AND
WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE MOST
DANGEROUS STORMS OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG TRACK
TORNADOES ACROSS ARKANSAS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A STORM OR
TWO FROM THIS AREA OF INITIATION COULD CLIP SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THEREFORE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE OZARKS...WHICH WILL BE DETAILED WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

STORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...GIVING
WAY TO A COLDER AIR MASS.  TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF
THE 40S ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER...A NICE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.  LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED WITH THIS FRONT.  FINALLY...A STRONGER FRONT IS INDICATED
BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TOWARD THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.  THIS FEATURE COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

FOR THE 27/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DROP BACK
TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VLY REGION. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE WITH LOW END MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMMON NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS COMMON BEHIND/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE FRONT SWEEPS
BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MO AFTER 06Z. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055-056-
     066>068-077-078-088-089-093-094-101.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
933 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281545-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
933 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

 ELEVATED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
 ELEVATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
 SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
 SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...

 AN EPISODE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECASTED TO
 OCCUR OVER THE OZARKS REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE
 HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
 THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
 RISK THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR...MOST LIKELY
 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN