A powerful mid-level shortwave trough ejected east-northeast across the southern Plains, reaching the lower and mid Mississippi Valley during the night. In the lower levels, a low intensified as it tracked from Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day, then across the Lower Ohio Valley in the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A powerful mid-level shortwave trough ejected east-northeast across the southern Plains, reaching the lower and mid Mississippi Valley during the night. In the lower levels, a low intensified as it tracked from Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day, then across the Lower Ohio Valley in the evening. To the east of the low, a warm front advanced northward to the Lower Ohio Valley. Storms moving east-northeast evolved into an extensive QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) that produced scattered wind damage in New Madrid County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 2:10 PM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
210 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OK WITH A STRONG
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH AR THROUGH MEM TO BWG. ANOTHER
WEAK WARM FRONT OR BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTHEAST INTO SC MO. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS. INFRA RED
SATELLITE INDICATED CLOUD TOPS COOLING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH STORM SYSTEM
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AGREE WITH SWODY1 THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE PAH CWA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...CAUSING THE LOW TO DEEPEN AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW AS PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 THIS
COMBINED WITH ALREADY OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THE FLOODING THREAT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY RATHER
LIMITED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRI. LI'S ARE POSITIVE UNTIL EVENING WITH NO
CAPE UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME EITHER. EVEN AFTER 00Z CAPE STAYS
WELL BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER THE SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AND MAY
OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW 0-1KM HELICITY ARE IN THE 500-700 M2S2 WITH 0-6KM
OVER 1000 M2S2. THE AREA OF GREATEST SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER IN KY...SWIN...AND SIL. AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 60 ACROSS SEMO. WITH THE 850MB JET AROUND 75 KNOTS
PLUS...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVERHEAD...AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THERE IS A DEFINITE THREAT OF SEVERE. ALTHOUGH AS
MENTIONED BEFORE AND SUPPORTED BY SWODY1 A MUCH GREATER THREAT EXIST
TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT THE THREAT TO EXIT TO OUR EAST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONGER TERM WILL COME WITH ANOTHER STRONG
MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL ROTATE NE
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
SOMEWHAT GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FIRSTLY...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MID LVL LOW
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ONE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE SFC
LOW WILL BE PASSING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS IL...WHICH WILL PUT US IN
MORE UNSTABLE AIR THAN TODAY. THUS...WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS
INVOLVED...THE CHC OF AT LEAST SCT STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET. TIMING IS AN ISSUE THO...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTING SUN EVENING...THE GFS SUGGESTING LATER SUN NIGHT...AND
THE ECMWF SUGGESTING MON MORNING. IN ORDER TO MINIMIZE ANY TIMING
ERRORS...OPTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS...SO POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
THE POSSIBLY BETTER NEWS IS THAT WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SHOT
OF MDT TO HVY RAIN/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE SHOULD NOT BE A LONG LASTING HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. NONETHELESS...AS SATURATED AS THE SOIL WILL BE OVER MANY
LOCATIONS...EVEN A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD CAUSE MORE HYDRO
ISSUES...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT ASPECT ALSO.
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS MAINLY PRECIP FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. BACK TO MORE NORMAL LATE FEB
TEMPS TOO..BUT NOTHING ARCTIC/CANADIAN LIKE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THICKER CLOUDCOVER AND GENERALLY LOWER CIGS IN THE IFR RANGE ARE
PROGRESSING FROM ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI ATTM AND
WILL REACH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTH OF PORTIONS OF THE BOOT HEEL OF
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS
WILL TRY TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CIGS MAY TEMPORARILY RISE
BACK INTO MVFR OR LOW VFR RANGE WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE. THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF +TSRA. FURTHER NORTH LOWER
STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING FROPA BETWEEN 03-08Z TONIGHT 15-25KTS. VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE AT THAT POINT BUT CIGS MAY CONTINUE IN THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL
MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-
CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-
LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI-
UNION IL.
IN...NONE.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 329 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-251100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 329 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PERRYVILLE MISSOURI...TO SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS...TO ROCKPORT INDIANA. THE WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS. FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS WELL...REFER TO THESE PRODUCTS FOR MORE COMPLETE DETAILS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES TOUCH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AND THE BOOTHEEL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR THEIR THREAT BEING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHEN THE STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS PASSAGE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF IMPACT WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AND ANOTHER BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE SOIL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SATURATED BY THE TIME THIS SECOND SYSTEM MOVES IN...SO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING OR LINGERING FLOODING ISSUES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY IS ANTICIPATED.
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:00 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
At least a couple of roads were underwater, including portions of Business Highway 60. Rainfall rates were around one-half inch per hour.
At least a couple of roads were underwater, including portions of Business Highway 60. Rainfall rates were around one-half inch per hour.
Wind gusts were estimated near 60 mph. Moving cars were blown off Interstate 55 at the Portageville exit.
The path width of this downburst was about 75 yards, and the path length was about 300 yards. Two well-constructed barns were destroyed. There was shingle and siding damage to at least five homes. Tree limbs were down, and a privacy fence was down.
A funnel cloud was observed near the downburst damage site by numerous people.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 278901, 281074, 278840, 278712, 278716.