Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, May 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING
THROUGH EASTERN MN AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE SHRA OUT OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z. FOCUS TURNS TO REDEVELOPING CONVECTION FOR
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CWA. APPEARS
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND THIS
WILL SPEED EAST DURING THE MORNING UNDER STRONG 130KT UPPER LEVEL
JET. 70KT SPEED MAX AT 5OH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED INVOF SFC
FRONT/TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. 1200 J/KG ML/MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CORRIDOR REGION OF
THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND APPEARS LOWER LEVEL SHEAR OF 45 KTS
OR SO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SUPER-CELL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. STRONGEST CELLS/BAND OF TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL...STG-SVR WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. WILL
HIGHLIGHT ZONE WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

SHOULD SEE WHATEVER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
EASTERN AREAS. FOCUS TURNS THEN TURNS TO RATHER POTENT WARM FRONT
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OVER IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12HOUR 50H HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME 100
METERS AS FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. ELEVATED CAPE OF SOME 200-800
J/KG BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 85H
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES NORTH ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. ANOMALY FOR 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE RANGE OF 4-5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS AROUND 200% ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN CWA AS THIS LIFTS
NORTH INTO MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG WARMING ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
70H CAP IN EXCESS OF 13C. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN HALF OF CWA MONDAY EVENING AS FRONT MOVES INTO VERY
UNSTABLE AIR-MASS AND MID LEVEL CAP MINIMIZES.  WILL SPREAD CHANCE
POPS EAST AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
INDICATION THAT FRONT MAY YET HAVE TO PUSH THROUGH FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THAT REGION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE CLOSE TO
AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARMING TREND THEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE 80 DEGREES READING LOOK TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ALONG DAYTIME HEATING...WILL GEN UP A FEW ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER IOWA...WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR 4 THOUSAND FEET
AGL...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE CEILINGS WILL RUN
BETWEEN 1500-3500 FEET AGL. SOME PATCHY VISIBILITIES LOWERING AROUND
5 MILES IN THE USUAL AREAS OVER SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MSP...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET AGL WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME HEATING HAD BEEN
INHIBIT A BIT DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD POOL OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND STRONG UPPER
JET MAX OVER THE AREA...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CURRENT THINKING..IS THAT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES.  SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING TO UNDER 6
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
290915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1105 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...OR NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR STAPLES...TO THE TWIN
CITIES...TO NEAR CUMBERLAND WISCONSIN. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             FAIRFAX                 44.53N 94.72W
05/28/2011  E0.50 INCH       RENVILLE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON