A large thunderstorm complex developed across southern Minnesota the early morning of Sunday, July 10th. Several bow echoes occurred along the path of the thunderstorm complex as it moved eastward across east central Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
A large thunderstorm complex developed across southern Minnesota the early morning of Sunday, July 10th. Several bow echoes occurred along the path of the thunderstorm complex as it moved eastward across east central Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 3:33 AM CST, 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 433 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SETUP TODAY ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH THAT WILL EFFICIENTLY SHIFT E...ALLOWING A DEFINITIVE TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NRN-CENTRAL MN. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NRN MN WILL SLOWLY DROP SE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. KMPX RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF LLJ AND A QUASI-STATIONARY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITHIN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED HOW MUCH ENERGY THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY MAY SAP FROM ENERGY THE MODELS SAY LATER ON TODAY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR LATER TODAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S AND E THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE S AND E SO HAVE SHOWN THIS TREND IN POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL STILL BE WARM/HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TONIGHT. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA WITHIN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS IN ITS DAY 1 OUTLOOK...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MPX CWFA IS IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET...BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KT...CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE OPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MUCAPES ARE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS MAINLY IN CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR WOULD BE EARLY- TO MID- DAY DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ANCHORED FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...STRETCHING SSWD...BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING WHILE THE SFC CDFNT LOOKS TO BE LOCATED FROM N-CENTRAL WI THROUGH SE MN. MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS MON MRNG WITH STRONG JETTING ALOFT AND A WARM/HUMID ATMOS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE E OF THE MPX CWFA BY THIS POINT. WILL ADVERTISE SOME 20/30 POPS IN SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WHILE CENTRAL- NORTHERN PORTIONS LOOK TO HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A DRIER NW FLOW. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTN...MUCH OF THE CWFA SHOULD BE SEEING SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE WHILE COOLER/DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SW BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SW THAT ONLY LOW-END POPS ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT FOR ISOLATED TO POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FAR SW MN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDE OVER AND E OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NE AND E ON WED TO SE ON THU...MAKING FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE SW...CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION CLIMB INTO THE MID-CHC RANGE. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS WITH TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG CELSIUS. CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WAS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EAST. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS RELATIVELY WEAK OR NOT EXISTENCE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. FRONT IS FORECAST TO WASHOUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND CONFIDENT OF PUTTING CB OR SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAF IS TOO LOW. EXPECT SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE USUAL TAF SITES KEAU..KRNH AND KMSP. REST OF FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SKC OR SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING UNDER 6 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. KMSP...SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...VSBYS 5-6 MILES IN FOG. HAD REMOVED TSRA CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH AIRMASS WELL CAPPED. ISOLD SHRA/TRSA MAY SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTH INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GENLY SKC OR SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET AGL. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && JPC/JPR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 101100- DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS- BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA- KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA- REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH- WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK- ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE- 1231 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
MNZ074-082-091-100915-
BROWN-MARTIN-WATONWAN-
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011
...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO BROWN...MARTIN AND WATONWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...
AT 312 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JEFFERS TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINDOM TO WORTHINGTON. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.
* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
COMFREY.
DARFUR.
ORMSBY.
SHERBURN.
ST JAMES.
SOUTH BRANCH.
BUTTERFIELD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.
&&
LAT...LON 4410 9487 4410 9510 4414 9511 4414 9510
4408 9460 4373 9448 4355 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 279DEG 30KT 4408 9525 4381 9515
4361 9559SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 MNZ067>069-076-077-100945- CARVER-LE SUEUR-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY- 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 ...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CARVER...LE SUEUR...RICE...SCOTT AND SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT... AT 359 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARLINGTON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. A QUICK 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... ARLINGTON. GREEN ISLE. HENDERSON. BELLE PLAINE. JORDAN. ST BENEDICT. LAT...LON 4480 9364 4454 9345 4449 9416 4467 9421 TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 259DEG 30KT 4460 9405
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 20 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:45 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree fell on a mobile home in the west part of Jordan, Minnesota.
Several power lines and a street lamp were damaged between 154th and 150th Streets, along Allen Street, or County Road 27, east of Prior Lake.
Several large trees and power lines were blown down near Lakeville, Minnesota.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 324023, 324025, 308971.