Drought in Minnesota, December 1 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
341 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS ROUNDING THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND HEAD FOR THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SNOWFALL
MAY CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE MOST
ROBUST SHOWING A MODEST BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 825-675 MB
LAYER...ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE THE SNOW
FIRST...DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ALL SNOW  ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH MAY WARM ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE
TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94...WHILE LOCATIONS BETWEEN I-94 AND I-90 COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE MOSTLY RAIN SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW. A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH MAY ACCUMULATE BEFORE THE
FRONTS EXITS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA PROVIDING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH WILL
RAPIDLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTION OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WILL ACT TO PRODUCE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTED INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM IS SHOWING THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION...WITH 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS WEAK 850
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...KEEPING THE STRONGEST TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. 30.12 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOWS DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE NAM
HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WOULD RESULT IN A
RAIN SNOW MIX AND LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATION. THE GFS OFFERS A
COLDER SOLUTION...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AS SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM REGARDING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SIMILAR
TO THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
IF THE MODELS TREND COOLER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE SNOWFALL WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
ROCHESTER TO EAU CLAIRE TO MEDFORD LINE...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTHEAST SEEING MOSTLY RAIN. A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
COOLER AIR WRAPS INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COOL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM AS ICE IS LOST FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST AND BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
341 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

30.12 MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS AS COLD...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY IN
THE DAY. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO INVADE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO PERHAPS SINGLE
DIGITS. THE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
1110 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...PASSING THROUGH KRST AROUND 09Z AND
KLSE NEAR 12Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PER 00Z KMPX/KDVN SOUNDINGS...BUT QUICKLY SATURATES PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUD
BASES ALONG WITH AREAS OF -SN. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR KRST/KLSE
WILL BE BETWEEN 12-18Z THU...AND 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO 2SM OR LESS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN
THE SNOW. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SOME MID/LATE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRI
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR THU EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAYTIME ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
341 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM... WETENKAMP
LONG TERM.... WETENKAMP
AVIATION..... RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CST WED NOV 30 2011

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-011200-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
611 AM CST WED NOV 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 IN WISCONSIN AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED. THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS WHERE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...YOU SHOULD STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECAST CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

DAS/HALBACH