Scattered rain showers developed over Upper Michigan on the afternoon of the 23rd. These did not get especially strong, but one managed to produce a waterspout.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Scattered rain showers developed over Upper Michigan on the afternoon of the 23rd. These did not get especially strong, but one managed to produce a waterspout.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 2:53 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 345 PM/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MICHIGAN AREA IN ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE STATE FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
FF
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 353 PM/...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
...SCT SHWRS DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH TEMPS TURNING MUCH COOLER...
ALL FCST PRODUCTS HAVE POSTED.
REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW MOVE THRU THIS EVNG WITH SFC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE (CFP). COLD FRONT (CDFNT) WILL BE THRU THE ERN U.P. BY
00Z AND THRU NRN LOWER BY 05Z BASED ON APX WRF. MOST ON-GOING
SHWRS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT A FEW LEFTOVERS WILL
LINGER AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.
GUSTINESS WILL REMAIN AS MIXING WILL BE MAINTAINED BY POTENT BURST
OF CAA...BUT MAGNITUDE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF TNGT'S FCST IS SKYCOVER. NCEP MOS
IS AWFULLY CLOUDY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW COOL AIR UNDERCUTTING
WARMER/MOISTER AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL SFC. BELIEVE ODDS FAVOR
CONDENSATION/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THIS INTERFACE. 19Z WX DEPICTION
SHOWS A LOT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BEHIND CDFNT /N AND W OF LOW PRES/
WHERE 12Z 850 MB CHART HAD ABUNDANT MSTR.
CAN FORESEE EVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED IN THE FCST.
TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND BASED ON
LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH HAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES.
MIN TEMPS ARE CONTINUITY FROM 4 AM APX FCST /41-49F/.
CFP BRINGS 4-DAY STRETCH OF WARM SPRING WX TO AN ABRUPT END.
JH
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 353 PM/...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
...FROST LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NUMEROUS LIGHT-MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...
DOMINANT FEATURES LOOKING AT NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON ARE IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A DOWNSTREAM CUTOFF LOW JUST WEST OF
GREENLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS DRIVING A STRONG
PUSH OF POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTH...EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS AS FAR
SOUTH AS LAKE WINNIPEG WHERE SNOW WAS FALLING THIS MORNING. OTHER
FEATURE OF NOTE IS PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POTENT 160KT JET JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE.
IT WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THESE PACIFIC IMPULSES WITH THE
STRENGTHENING VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY THAT GOVERNS OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD...BUT THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN MARKEDLY DURING THE DAY AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND IT/S EVOLUTION. EXPECT
THAT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO SCOUR THIS OUT.
ALSO...RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER INLAND AREAS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
SOLAR INSOLATION BY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN LOWER WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED CU THROUGH
THE DAY. T85 WILL FALL TO AROUND 5C WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S...COOLER AT COASTAL LOCALES GIVEN THAT A WEAKENING
NORTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES ON THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND...WITH THE FLOW BEING WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES TO COME IN ON THE LAKE HURON
COAST AS WELL.
CLEARING SKIES...A DRY POLAR AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS SET THE STAGE
FOR A POTENTIALLY FROSTY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKE INHERITED GRIDS
SHOWING INLAND LOWS GENERALLY 30-34. DISCUSSED POTENTIAL OF A
FREEZE WATCH BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FROST EVENT.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL NEAR THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS QG FORCING OVERSPREADS A REGION OF
DEVELOPING 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF A PRETTY
MOIST AIRMASS AS PWATS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAKE A RUN AT
1.5 INCHES. PRIMARY CONCERN/CAVEAT ON THE ARRIVING PRECIP IS
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY FLOW OF POLAR AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS DUE
TO THE PATTERN CONFIGURATION OVER NORTHERN NOAM. THIS IS GOING TO
HELP SUPPORT A SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. SO...WHILE I AM NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT 09Z SREFS
BRINGING PRECIPITATION UP TO THE TIP OF THE MITT REGION...CAN/T
IGNORE A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS OF PRECIPITATION REACHING MY
SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP...BUT
KEPT THEM SHORT OF LIKELY THIS PACKAGE AS I/M STILL CONCERNED THAT A
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WILL EVENTUALLY PLAY OUT /AS SUGGESTED BY A
DPROG/DT OF THE LAST 6 RUNS OF THE GFS/. OF COURSE THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MODULATE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY SO WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S...AND THESE COULD BE TOO HIGH IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP
MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
TO PULL EAST...BUT MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH JUST AS IT PASSES EAST OF
OUR LONGITUDE LATE FRIDAY AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST. INHERITED CHANCE POPS LOOK FIND OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
OUR REGION REALLY BEING RIGHT UNDER THE MID LEVEL FRONT...AND THUS
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONTOGENETICALLY-SUPPORTED PRECIPITATION
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE DESCENDING BRANCH OF THE
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION KEEPING AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA DRY...WITH STRENGTHENING DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACTUALLY KEEPING EASTERN UPPER QUITE DRY. THE PERIOD WILL NOT BE
WARM WITH T85S STILL AROUND 5C AND LIKELY A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SUGGESTING
THAT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH HIGHER THAN 60F.
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FAST FLOW WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
IMPULSES CERTAINLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED NICELY BY RECENT GEFS RMOP GRAPHICS. HAVE DONE MY BEST
TO HIGHLIGHT THE PERIODS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT TIMING IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION. GIVEN
MULTI-MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SHORTWAVE IN OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY...HAVE ADDED CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR THIS PERIOD.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS CARVING OUT A DEEP WESTERN NOAM
TROUGH WITH BUILDING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS SUGGESTING A DECENT RESPITE
FROM PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MUCH
FLATTER FLOW WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING IN THIS REGION HOLDING OFF
UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE RESULT BEING A CONTINUATION OF
SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH OUR AREA ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE HONESTLY LOOKING A GOOD DEAL MORE LIKE THE GFS/GEFS
CAMP...AND WITH SO MUCH PACIFIC ENERGY DIVING INTO WESTERN NOAM THIS
WEEKEND...LIKE THE IDEA OF A TROUGH EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT IN THIS
REGION...AND THEREFORE WILL BRING HEDGE IN THIS DIRECTION AND BRING
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO END
THE PERIOD. SO...IN SUMMARY EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE AT LEAST ONE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE MONDAY NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT UNLIKELY.
ARNOTT
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 353 PM/
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
QUICKLY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SMALL
CRAFT-WORTHY WAVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS COMES ON THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN
NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
GALE POTENTIAL IS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ARNOTT/JH
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 141 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
...SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN END WITH WINDSHIFT TO NW THIS EVNG...
THIS AFTN: VFR THO WITH SCT MVFR-IFR IN ANY SHWRS/TSTMS. GIVEN BRIEF
NATURE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY TEMPO GROUPS
ATTM. SW WINDS GUST 19-25 KTS WITH ISOLATED G33 KTS OUTSIDE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS.
TNGT: VFR DEGRADES MVFR STRATUS WITH FROPA AND WSHFT TO NW 01Z-03Z.
IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE PLN APN.
TUE THRU 18Z: MVFR/IFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CLEAR 14Z-16Z
WITH N WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
JH
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347-348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ322.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
&&
WFO APXHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 344 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 241200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 344 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. JH/JMA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 N STANDISH 44.11N 83.96W
05/22/2011 ARENAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
15 TO 25 LARGE TREES DOWN...SNAPPED OFF OR UPROOTED
LAYING IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ONE 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE
SNAPPED OFF 6 FT ABOVE GROUND. ONE 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE
FELL ONTO A SWING SET. AREA WAS 3...4 MILE EAST OF GROVE
BISHOP ROAD INTERSECTION. DAMAGE AREA CONFINED TO
ROUGHLY 1...4 MILE. HALF INCH HAIL ALSO FELL. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER APX1100398
JHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
208 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 N STANDISH 44.11N 83.96W
05/22/2011 ARENAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER
15 TO 25 LARGE TREES DOWN...SNAPPED OFF OR UPROOTED
LAYING IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ONE 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE
SNAPPED OFF 6 FT ABOVE GROUND. ONE 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE
FELL ONTO A SWING SET. AREA WAS 3/4 MILE EAST OF GROVE
BISHOP ROAD INTERSECTION. DAMAGE AREA CONFINED TO
ROUGHLY 1/4 MILE. HALF INCH HAIL ALSO FELL. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER APX1100398
JHThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 143 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:20 UTC.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
The waterspout formed from an otherwise unimpressive rain shower on the Helmer Bay portion of Manistique Lake in Luce County. It drifted south, crossing into Mackinac County, and soon dissipated over the southeastern portion of the lake.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Michigan, 2011Warnings in Michigan, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 340243.