Hail, Cass
- When
- July 2, 4:37 PM EST to 4:38 PM EST
- Where
- Cass County, 0.86 mi SW of Cassopolis
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 41.910, -86.010
Hail in Michigan, July 2, 2011
Two lifting mechanisms, a cold front and a lake breeze, interacted with an extremely unstable, but poorly sheared environment, to allow for thunderstorm development. The highest instability resided south into Indiana and Ohio, limiting the coverage and intensity of the storms across far southern Lower Michigan.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Two lifting mechanisms, a cold front and a lake breeze, interacted with an extremely unstable, but poorly sheared environment, to allow for thunderstorm development. The highest instability resided south into Indiana and Ohio, limiting the coverage and intensity of the storms across far southern Lower Michigan. Two reports of quarter size hail were received.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 1:17 PM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 1:17 PM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 217 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 .SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ISO/SCT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVE AS A SFC TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE FA IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS RIDGE FLATTENS. THIS WEAK SFC TROUGH...JUST NW OF THE FA AS OF 18Z...WILL LIKELY WORK INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SW LOWER MI 19-21Z AND SEWD FROM THERE 21-03Z. ALSO OF NOTE IS A LAKE BREEZE NOW SITUATED JUST NW OF SBN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A WEAK CAP IN THE 900-800 HPA LAYER...SUPPORTING AT LEAST ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY / SFC THETA-E 360K AND SFC DEWPOINTS 74-76F...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY HAS SUPPORTED EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES NOW BTW 5000-6000 J/KG. THIS EXTREME INSTABILITY GIVES CREDENCE TO SPC SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTN EVEN WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE MID LVL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. H8-H6 MID LEVEL DRY LAYER COMBINED WITH A WELL-MIXED DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR DOWNDRAFT MODULATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...PLENTIFUL CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE FAVOR AN ISO LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY AT INITIATION WITH EL'S NEAR 50 KFT. USED A HRRR/SPC 4 KM FOR TIMING OF SCT CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION BTW 19-22Z IN NW AND 22-02Z IN THE SE. NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY/COOLER/AND LESS HUMID SUNDAY AS WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF ANY APPROACHING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW INVOF WY/MT/ID PER AFTN WATER VAPOR...WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD IN WESTERLIES UNDER A DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FEATURE LOCALLY GIVEN LOW LVL RIDGING IN PLACE AND BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY LOCKED UP OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ACTIVE NW FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK...BUT CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED IMPULSES EJECTING ESE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH. STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FLOW ON TUE-WED...WITH A LL THETA-E SURGE EXPECTED AHEAD...SUPPORTING WARM FRONTAL PRECIP...FOLLOWED BY SFC COLD FRONT PRECIP CHANCES. OTHERWISE...GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD A STRONGER HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DAYS 5-7. THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SW OF THE REGION...WITH COOLER/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS CERTAINLY IS A STRONG TREND IN ECMWF/GEM/GFS PROGS...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL VERY MUCH LOOMS PER THE DETAILS OF NE PAC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH KEEP TEMPS AROUND CLIMO...WITH COOLEST CONDITIONS OVER ZONES CLOSEST TO LK MI. THIS ALSO INCLUDES A DRY FORECAST DAYS 5-7 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MON-WED...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS PERIOD. DID ADJUST POPS TUE NIGHT PER A THETA-E ADV REGIME WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHRA/TS ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER IN THE LATE TUE DAY PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE PERIOD AND LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE LEFT THE TUE DAYTIME PERIOD DRY. MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH...WITH AMPLE LL FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BE PROGGED IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS TYPE CONVECTION...WILL HANG ON TO LOWER POPS SPREAD OVER A LONGER PERIOD UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND TIMING CAN BE ASCERTAINED. HAVE PREFERRED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED IF SUBSTANTIAL INSOLATION IS SEEN. THUR-SAT...OPTED FOR A SOLUTION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH FITS THE HEIGHT PATTERN OF LATE /STRONGER SE CANADIAN NEG HEIGHT ANOMALY/. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DATABASE WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO NUMBERS /HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S/. && .AVIATION... / 18Z TAFS / VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVE. SFC TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...BOTH ALONG THE MAIN SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE ALREADY SHOWING UP JUST NORTH OF SBN. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE BTW 19-21Z AROUND SBN...ORGANIZING AND MORPHING SEWD TOWARDS FWA BTW 21-01Z. LAKE SHADOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION SOUTH OF SBN SO CONTINUED WITH A VFR VCTS/CB MENTION FOR NOW. ADDED A MVFR TEMPO TSRA/3SM GROUP FROM 21-24Z AT FWA. AREAS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...BEST CHANCES AT FWA CLOSER TO SINKING BOUNDARY AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 3:58 AM EST, 12 hours 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 458 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-030900- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 458 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 /358 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALES TO REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-030900- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 458 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 2, 3:48 PM EST, 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
448 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM HAIL LA PORTE 41.61N 86.72W
07/02/2011 M0.70 INCH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER IWX1101100
SCLocal storm report, Jul 2, 3:53 PM EST, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
453 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM HAIL 2 SW LAPORTE 41.59N 86.74W
07/02/2011 E1.00 INCH LA PORTE IN COCORAHS
&&
EVENT NUMBER IWX1101102
NDMLocal storm report, Jul 2, 4:19 PM EST, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
519 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL LA PORTE 41.61N 86.72W
07/02/2011 E0.70 INCH LAPORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER IWX1101103
NDMLocal storm report, Jul 2, 4:30 PM EST, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0529 PM HAIL 2 E KINGSBURY 41.53N 86.66W
07/02/2011 M1.00 INCH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER
RANGES FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IWX1101104
BENTLEYThe radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:35 UTC.
Event by event
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail, St. Joseph
- When
- July 2, 5:11 PM EST to 5:12 PM EST
- Where
- St. Joseph County, 1.47 mi SSW of White Pigeon
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Amateur Radio
- Coordinates
- 41.780, -85.640
What these are
- Hail
- Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 2, 2011
- Tornado and Hail in Kansas, July 2, 2011
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Indiana, July 2 to 3, 2011
- Hail in Wyoming, July 2, 2011
- Damaging Winds in Arizona, July 2, 2011
- Flooding and Hail in Missouri, July 2 to 4, 2011
- Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, July 2, 2011
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Illinois, July 2 to 3, 2011
- Damaging Winds in Georgia, July 2, 2011
- Damaging Winds in Texas, July 2, 2011
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Wyoming, July 2, 2011
- Flash Flood and Hail in Indiana, July 2 to 3, 2011
More
Every storm in Michigan in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2011
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 306845, 306846.