A line of thunderstorms moved across Northern Lower Michigan, producing damaging winds in a few spots.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms moved across Northern Lower Michigan, producing damaging winds in a few spots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 10:59 PM EST, 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1159 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 352 PM/ FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE GREAT LAKES... WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING CANADIAN COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME MUCH NEEDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 80S MONDAY. BUT AS THIS HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ADAM && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1026 PM/...TONIGHT UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN OUT FOR A WHILE. CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...UPDATED FORECASTS INCREASED POPS TO NUMEROUS ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN SOME (WENT SCATTERED DOWN THERE). STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WIND FIELDS ARE DECENT (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS). RADAR TEAM IS ON SITE TO ANALYZE LATEST STORM TRENDS. SULLIVAN && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 352 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND MON THROUGH WED...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OBVIOUSLY ON BOTH TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. OVERALL MEAN UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL PROGGED TO FLATTEN JUST A TOUCH THROUGH MIDWEEK AS INCOMING SHORTWAVE HELPS RE-AMPLIFY NORTHEAST CONUS WEAK UPPER TROUGH. OBVIOUSLY WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON MON...AND THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE NOTHING TO SHOUT ABOUT...AS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE TONIGHT'S CONVECTION HOLDS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CAN FORESEE SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (OR LACK THEREOF) ROLLS THROUGH DURING THE MORNING...MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL ENCOUNTER DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES AS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT GOES SLACK. COULD SEE A SECOND AREA OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER VIA LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS JUST A TOUCH SLOWER WITH INTRODUCTION OF LOWER PWAT AIR MASS. PROVIDED WE CAN LOSE WHATEVER CLOUD COVER IS AROUND FROM EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY...SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DESTABILIZING GIVEN LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE LOWER (PERHAPS MIDDLE?) 70S AND TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 2-2.5K J/KG. DEEP SHEAR ALSO PROGGED TO REMAIN DECENT IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE THANKS TO STRONGER FLOW MAINLY ABOVE 600MB...SO DEFINITELY A LOW END SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH SUSPECT BETTER THREAT WILL COME SOUTH OF THE AREA AS REMNANTS OF MORNING MCS (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY?) REDEVELOP INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MON NIGHT/TUE STILL LOOKING DRY AT THIS POINT AS BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER (I USE THAT TERM SOMEWHAT LOOSELY) AND LOWER THETA-E AIR BACKS INTO THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. DESPITE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FINDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN LOSS OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND REMNANT CAPPING UP AROUND 750MB. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO LOSE A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO WEAK MIXING...THOUGH WITH LITTLE WIND AROUND...IT WILL FEEL QUITE HOT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN EXPECTED. STILL WATCHING SETUP OF RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION...BUT JUST NOT MUCH TO HANG ONE'S HAT ON WITH PRIMARY CONVECTION LIKELY TO SET UP NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STRONGER WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES. WILL INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR MAINLY WED AS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS NOT ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RETURNING INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 3K J/KG...THOUGH LACKING A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. LATER PERIODS (WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN)...CLASSIC (AND SOMEWHAT RARE) NORTHERN MICHIGAN HEAT WAVE SET TO CONTINUE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE 593+ DM CLOSED HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE MID MISS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME FLATTENING OF THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE INTO LATE WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TOPS THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT THAT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH THE CWA SOMETIME THROUGH LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO LESS THAN STELLAR...AS IS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN UPPER WED NIGHT/THU WITH PERSISTENT GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF HINTS OF NORTHERN STREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG SAID BOUNDARY... PERHAPS IMPACTING LOCALES NORTH OF THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE...JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THROW IN ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SAT...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING HINTS THAT SIGNIFICANT HEAT MAY TAKE ANOTHER BRIEF RESPITE INTO FRI WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR FRONT AS MEAN WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AMPLIFIES. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD CLEARLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME LOOKING EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AS CORE OF THERMAL RIDGING FOLDS INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LOWS WED NIGHT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME FALLING OUT OF THE UPPER 70S IN MANY SPOTS...WITH HIGHS ON THU POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 90S (H85 TEMPS PEAK AROUND +24C). PENDING NO SURPRISES WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT SOLID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THU ROLLS AROUND. LAWRENCE && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 352 PM/ RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS GOING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE NOTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND AFTERNOON WINDS DOMINATED BY NEARSHORE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BUILD RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING ON WEDNESDAY. LAWRENCE && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1155 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BR/FOG LIKELY TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS...DROPPING VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN IFR CATEGORY. EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD (EXPECT POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS). AJS && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 410 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 181200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 410 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LAWRENCE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1220 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1121 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 S NAUBINWAY 46.08N 85.45W
07/17/2011 M41.00 MPH LMZ341 MI C-MAN STATION
&&
JHThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:19 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees and numerous power lines were downed. A garage was damaged by a fallen tree.
A couple of trees were downed. A pickup truck suffered minor damage from a fallen tree.
Scattered tree damage, including a few downed trees, occurred in the Atlanta area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 335397, 335398, 335401.