A slow moving and extensive area of showers and thunderstorms dropped 3 inches of rain on parts of Pulaski county on May 3rd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A slow moving and extensive area of showers and thunderstorms dropped 3 inches of rain on parts of Pulaski county on May 3rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 1:57 AM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 257 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS A BIT TRICKY AND ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY HORRID THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO MY CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND SEQUENCING OF THE SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOUR AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRENGTHENED COLD FRONT OUT TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE THE COLD FRONT. THE INSTABILITY IS SUCH THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONLY SCATTERED AND EMBEDDED AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THEN FINALLY...THERE WILL BE A SHORT LIVED DRY PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. FOR TEMPS...WENT WITH THE NAM MOS FOR TODAY AS IT WAS SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WENT WITH A NUDGE TO CONSENSUS MOS. .LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY IS WELL AGREED UPON IN THE MODELING...FEATURING A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST AFFECTING EAST KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PROGS INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHTLY WARMER...MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA SO WILL CARRY A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE END OF THE PERIOD IS MARKED WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE 03/00Z GFS BECOMES COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 02/12Z ECMWF BY MONDAY...AND THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO A DEGREE IN THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO...WILL SIDE CLOSELY WITH THE INHERITED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/ A VERY TRICKY SYNOPTIC SITUATION...ADDS QUITE A BIT TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TAF FORECAST. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL WAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE STRENGTHENS OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRENGTHENED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE IFR AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 432 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041145- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 432 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RUN HIGH AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS MAY BECOME WATER COVERED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS WELL AS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. JJ
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Three inches of rain fell in an area centralized between Science Hill, Bethelridge, Mintonville, and Windsor between 630 am and 236 pm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 306445.