A line of thunderstorms brought down trees and caused sporadic property damage in Clay, Estill, Jackson, and Laurel counties during the early morning hours of May 23rd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A line of thunderstorms brought down trees and caused sporadic property damage in Clay, Estill, Jackson, and Laurel counties during the early morning hours of May 23rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 2:40 AM EST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 340 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN COMPARABLY THRU THE SHORT TERM BUT ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS. AS SUCH HAVE USED A GENERIC BLEND OF THE 23.00Z SUITE WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVERALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SEVERE WX AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWING MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WORKING ITS WAY EAST THRU THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING THEIR STRENGTH QUITE WELL WITH THE HELP OF A 40 KT LLJ SENDING MOISTURE UP THE MS VALLEY INTO THE REGION. BARRING ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN SPEED...THESE STORMS LOOK TO MOVE THRU OUR AREA OVER THE PREDAWN HOURS AND WOULD BE ON PACE TO CLEAR OUR ERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT FROM MID MORNING THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN. THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA LOOKS TO BE GREATEST...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE TREATMENT OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW OVERHEAD...WHICH RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THIS WAVE...BRINGING THIS ENERGY UP THRU CENTRAL KY EARLY THIS EVENING THEN CARRYING IT UP THE OH VALLEY. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A MUCH MORE ROBUST WAVE UP THRU OH BUT MUCH LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS...WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY TUESDAY THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BECOMES TOO GREAT TO HAVE ANY REAL CONFIDENCE IN ONE SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AMPLE INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING...THOUGH THE 850 MB JET DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS FOCUSED OVER OUR AREA. AGAIN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TREATMENT OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA ARE TO SUBSTANTIAL TO LEND OVERWHELMING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...AND WILL KEEP THE BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS GOING THRU THE DAY. AGAIN...IF THE INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED DOES MATERIALIZE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY SPILLING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED THE MORE DIURNALLY LIMITED NUMBERS OF THE METMOS...THOUGH STILL UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS ADVERTISED MAY ALSO BE A BIT WARM AND USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET NUMBERS...WHICH GENERALLY SUPPORTED THE INHERITED TEMPS. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL ROTATE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS RIDGING WILL BUILD BRIEFLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL OPEN UP BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO MAGNIFY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS STARTS TO MOVE THIS FEATURE FASTER TO THE EAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEM AND 00Z ECMWF. REGARDLESS...AS THIS LOW FILLS ITS ENERGY WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CARRIED BY MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. BY 00Z FRIDAY...THE ECMWF IS CLEARLY THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE MODEL AT 500 MB...HOLDING BACK THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES MAINTAIN THE LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE QUESTION REMAINS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND JUST HOW THE EASTERN TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WAKE OF RE-ENFORCING ENERGY ENTERING THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF...TO A GREATER EXTENT THAN THE OTHERS...ALLOWS THE ENERGY FROM THE NEXT WAVE TO MEET UP WITH ITS OHIO VALLEY TROUGH. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD THE LOW HEIGHTS IN PLACE...NEARLY OVERHEAD...WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BY SUNDAY...THE PREFERRED ECMWF IS ENTIRELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...REFLECTING A DEEP CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY RATHER THAN RIDGING. GIVEN CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SEVERAL SFC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WAVY BOUNDARY LYING JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. INITIALLY THIS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR CONVECTION...BUT ONCE INITIATED...OUTFLOWS AND MESO/MICROSCALE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF ANY STORMS...LOWERING PREDICTABILITY. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FAVOR A DIURNAL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY IMPINGE ON PARTS OF THE AREA WELL AFTER THE DAYTIME HEAT WOULD HAVE DISSIPATED. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS SFC REFLECTION MOVE DEEPER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...HAVE DRAWN A MINIMUM IN POPS AND SKY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST...POPS IN THOSE AREAS WILL PEAK NEAR 50 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWING THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION... HAVE PAINTED A DAMPER AND COOLER FORECAST THAN IMPLIED BY THE SUPER PROGRESSIVE GFS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLE UP TO AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...EXPECT THE TIMES OF STORMS TO BE INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD EXCESSIVE TRAINING OCCUR. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALONG WITH MINOR TERRAIN DRIVEN ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MINIMUMS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE DRY SIDE OF MEX THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MAINTAINED HIGHER VALUES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/ BKN LINE OF TSTMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING THRU LOZ TOWARDS JKL AT ISSUANCE BUT HAVING A HARD TIME IMPACTING THE OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. 05Z IR SAT SHOT STILL SHOWS A SWATH OF CLEAR SKIES MOVING INTO THE SW TAF LOCATIONS AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT VSBYS OVERNIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT IF VSBYS START TO TANK...THEY WILL GO AT LEAST TO IFR...POSSIBLY WORSE. ANOTHER BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CROSSING THE MS VALLEY IS TIMED TO REACH SME AROUND 11Z...LOZ AND JKL AROUND 12Z...AND WOULD LIKELY TAKE CONDITIONS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THRU THE EVENING...POSSIBLY CONTINUING AGAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY AT FIRST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE VCTS FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD ATTM AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TIMING/COVERAGE WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...MB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 431 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-241145- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 431 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIAPTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AS WELL AS STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. GEOGERIAN/KAS/JP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 157 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 KYZ052-088-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120-230930- ROWAN-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT- PERRY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK... WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON... HINDMAN...HAZARD...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE 157 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 ...AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA BY DAWN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE FOG DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG WILL DROP VISIBILITIES QUICKLY IN A SHORT DISTANCE. JP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 554 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 KYZ068-079-080-083>085-231100- ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-WHITLEY-MCCREARY- 554 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 ...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING... WESTERN ROCKCASTLE... PULASKI... SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL... WAYNE... WHITLEY AND MCCREARY. AT 554 AM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR CABELL...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SUSIE AROUND 600 AM EDT...MONTICELLO AROUND 605 AM EDT...STEUBENVILLE AROUND 610 AM EDT...DELTA AROUND 615 AM EDT AND KIDDER AROUND 620 AM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. GREIF
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:04 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few shingles were blown off a home and everything on the patio was blown about 100 yards into the woods. Wind speed was measured at 77 mph.
A tree was blown down and across Old Fox Rd north of Irvine.
A tree was blown down and across Henry White Rd.
A tree was blown down and across a road in East Bernstadt.
A tree was blown down and across Jakes Heavenly Highway in Alumbaugh.
A tree was blown down and across the road in McWhorter.
A tree was blown down and across Roots Rd 1 mile north of Pigeonroost.
A tree was blown down and across Reynolds Rd in Pigeonroost.
A tree was blown down and across Whites Branch Rd 4 miles southwest of Pigeonroost.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 306520, 306527, 306530, 306531, 306532, 306533, 306536, 306537, 306542.