Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, March 22 to 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER OH AND NORTHERN WV. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
SUNRISE AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A CAP IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...
BY LATE IN THE DAY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY MAY WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION.
IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IT WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY LATER IN THE
EVENING...MID LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING SHOULD PUT AN END TO ANY
PRECIP AS MODEST RIDGING ALOFT PASSES OVER. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RIDING SE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...STRENGTHENING A LOW LEVEL JET OVER KY. THIS COULD FUEL A
ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OR AROUND DAWN...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO OUR N AND NE.

THIS SETS US UP FOR AN INTERESTING SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WIND
FIELDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH CONSIDERABLE
SPEED SHEAR EXPECTED. A MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS SHOULD STILL BE IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY...WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR POSSIBLY ARRIVES ATOP
THE SURFACE AIR MASS DURING THE DAY. THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST AIR MASS
AFTER HEATING OCCURS MAY BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING OUR THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. IF IT IS TOO SHALLOW AND
DRY AIR MIXES DOWN...IT WOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LEAN HEAVILY IN EITHER DIRECTION AT THIS TIME.
HAVE CARRIED CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS THE STRONG
LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH...AT LEAST SOME OF IT WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MODELS AGREEING ON A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE
EAST AS THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST THE GRIDS BASED ON MODEL
TRENDS AND TO PROVIDE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MOVING FURTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED...MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREEABLE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH COULD KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY ACTIVE AND
WET THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS WEEKEND. SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...COULD KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD TREND DRIER AND
COOLER HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED IFR. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED.
LLWS WILL DISSIPATE WITH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AFTER HEATING OCCURS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS FROM THE WSW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEVERE STORMS BEING A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER/KAS
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106-107-119-231100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MARTIN-
728 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO REPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY.

KYZ058-059-068-069-079-080-083>088-108>118-120-231100-
ESTILL-POWELL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
728 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO REPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY.

HAL