Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms produced tree damage and heavy rain in Montgomery, Clay, Morgan, and Johnson counties during the afternoon and evening hours of June 23rd.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms produced tree damage and heavy rain in Montgomery, Clay, Morgan, and Johnson counties during the afternoon and evening hours of June 23rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 23, 10:26 AM EST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1126 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BETWEEN CVG AND OWB. LOW LEVEL STRATOCU IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD... ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. THE LATEST 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN THE NORTH AND LESS IN THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR IS ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE SREF INDICATING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 21 AND 06Z AS THE SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE THE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING...AND MAINTAIN GENERAL SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH DECENT SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNUSUAL GIVEN THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE PRIME TIME IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM AND WRF-NMM BOTH DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY AIDED BY SOME LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS SEEMS TO BE A TARGETED AREA THIS WEEK...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...OUTSIDE OF A ROGUE SHOWER. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REALLY DOES NOT GET HERE UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE. BOTH THE NAM AND WRF-NMM HAS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...SO HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOES TODAY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS VERY HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ML-CAPES WILL APPROACH 1500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGER HAIL (DESPITE THE VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL). BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A 500MB VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS COULD POP OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...BOUNDARY LAYER IS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAVE GONE A TOUCH BELOW OUR HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY...WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80. ON FRIDAY...HAVE GONE MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT FRIDAY. AS SKIES CLEAR OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...OUR LOWS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE 50S...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS. BY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL START TO MODERATE AGAIN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 80. .LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE RUNNING TOO WARM. EVEN THOUGH ITS MEXMOS HAS TONED DOWN THE NUMBERS FROM WHAT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST...IT STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER. AS A RESULT...RAISED FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE INHERITED FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN... WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AND EXPANDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS...WITH OCCASIONAL WEAKER WAVES PASSING THROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL START OUT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THERE WILL BE MUCH ACTIVITY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL AID OF A PASSING SHORT WAVE...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LENDING MORE INFLUENCE. STILL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING. FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS...WITH THE WARM BIAS OF THE GFS THAT HAS BEEN EVIDENT ALL SPRING AND INTO EARLY SUMMER. STUCK A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOWS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WHEN DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. && .AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/ OUTSIDE OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL COME WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z. CIGS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR...BUT OPTING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING. AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...SOME LOW MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT ON THESE CLOUDS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...KAS/GEOGERIAN LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN/HAL AVIATION...HAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 408 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-241200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 408 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY INCIDENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY. KAS/HAL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 139 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 KYZ044-051-052-231815- FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH- 139 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON... SOUTHERN FLEMING... NORTH CENTRAL ROWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL BATH. AT 139 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHERBURNE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HILLSBORO AROUND 145 PM EDT...GODDARD AROUND 150 PM EDT...MUSES MILLS AROUND 155 PM EDT...WALTZ AROUND 200 PM EDT...TRIPLETT AROUND 205 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GEOGERIAN
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:01 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees and power lines were blown down in Judy. One tree was blown down and onto a house. Roofs and barns around the area were heavily damaged. The damage was confined to an area around and within two miles of Judy.
Numerous trees were blown down along Horse Creek Road.
A few trees were blown down on Cemetery Road.
Trees were blown down along Cow Branch Rd off Hwy 172 and also on Hwy 772 at mile marker 6.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 317005, 317007, 317009, 317010, 317011.