Flooding in Kentucky, June 1 to 3, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST IOWA INTO
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BAND OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PARALLELING MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE
REGION WITH DIURNAL ENHANCED CU ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGHER CLOUD
SHIELD. RETURNS SEEN ON RADAR ARE MAINLY MID LEVEL...WITH NARROW
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH.

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE I-64 CORRIDOR DRY FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
THIS AREA MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE
DIMINISHING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CWFA...BUT WILL WATCH IT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE IS HARD TO COME BY AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. BUT
CANNOT RULE IT OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OZARK TERRAIN AND JUST
EAST. BUT GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. INSTABILITY AXIS
IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND LEAVE SLIGHTS IN. WILL HAVE IT
DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON THURSDAY...GIVEN THE NAM IS TRYING TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION. THE OTHER MODELS...WHILE SHOWING SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ARE NOT SIGNALING THE NEED FOR A POP JUST
YET. AND...THEY KEEP THE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD BACK IN AND SET THE STAGE FOR
HOT WEATHER RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED
IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. WE EXPECT TO SEE MID 90S AREA WIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IMPRESSIVE RIDGING ALOFT LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE IN THE UPPER HIGH
RETROGRESSING AT LEAST BRIEFLY TO OUR WEST SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF THEN
BUILDS THE HIGH RIGHT BACK OVER US...WHILE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS
CONFINE IT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES.
THE GFS IS REALLY INFLUENCED BY TROUGHING ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WHICH FORCES STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SEEMS A BIT
SUSPECT AT THIS TIME.

SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE TYPICAL
PERSISTENCE OF SUCH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. IN GENERAL...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE COOL FRONT TAKES THE
EDGE OFF THE HEAT JUST A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH SOME
EVIDENCE OF LOWER DEWPOINTS INFILTRATING THE REGION...WE MAY SEE A
GREATER DIURNAL RANGE...WITH A LITTLE MORE NIGHT-TIME RELIEF TO GO
ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GFS SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE 06Z RUN...INDICATE SOME MINOR
CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/S LIGHT QPF.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE SOUTH SUNDAY. WITH VERY WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...ANY
STORMS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SOME CU AS WELL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS RELAX. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
243 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. CHECK RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY TOP OUT
AROUND 100 DEGREES...AND RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. CHECK RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.