Heavy rains over a 2 day period in late November brought minor flooding to several larger rivers across central Kentucky in early December. Flooding developed on the Rolling Fork and Green Rivers.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
Heavy rains over a 2 day period in late November brought minor flooding to several larger rivers across central Kentucky in early December. Flooding developed on the Rolling Fork and Green Rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 11:22 PM EST, 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1122 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term (Tonight and Thursday)... Afternoon satellite shows partly to mostly sunny skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Atmospheric moisture continues to decrease as high pressure builds in from the west. With solar insolation kicking up, temperatures have rebounded into the lower 40s across southern Indiana and the western half of Kentucky. Over our eastern/Bluegrass areas, temperatures are still in the upper 30s to near 40. Once clouds clear out over there, I think we'll see temps rise another degree or so before falling through the late afternoon and into the evening hours. By evening, temperatures across the area should be in the lower to middle 30s. For tonight, consensus of the model guidance suggests mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures. Current AllBlend guidance takes readings down into the mid 20s. Am thinking that low to mid 20s will probably be the case as the combination of clear skies and light winds should make radiational cooling a pretty good bet. High pressure will hold sway during the day on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected. Highs will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 in the north with lower 50s across the south. The warmest temps will likely be along the KY/TN border where 53-56 degree readings will be possible. .Long term (Thursday Night - Wednesday)... We'll be dry at the beginning of the long term forecast period. A weak frontal boundary will pass to our north Friday but should only bring us some clouds, no precip. High temperatures Thurs/Fri should be in the upper 40s and lower 50s with low temperatures in the lower 30s. A stronger cold front and upper level trough will approach the area Saturday. Ahead of this system, southerly winds should allow temps to warm into the mid to upper 50s. Rain will arrive ahead of the front Saturday night west of I-65, spreading east through the rest of our area early Sunday. Sunday/Sunday night should be pretty rainy with multiple waves riding along the frontal boundary. These waves will originate from an upper trough anchored over the SW CONUS. Models vary on how quickly this upper trough will eject out of the SW CONUS. Also a secondary upper trough will move through southern Canada early next week. The position of the 2 troughs and how much they phase or separate will determine how long it continues to precipitate Monday/Tuesday and what type of precip we receive. The 12Z GFS indicates that the colder air will arrive in time to change precip over to rain/snow mix or maybe even just light snow. The 12Z ECMWF indicates a slower arrival of colder air which would result in only a small chance for a rain/snow mix as precip ends. With the varying model solns for Mon/Tues, a low confidence forecast exists. Either way, the cold air should be well established over the area by Wed with high temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 30s. Low temperatures will drop into the mid 20s. && .Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)... High pressure will keep winds light and skies mostly clear during this TAF period. The only question is fog. Right now it looks like the worst of any fog development Thursday morning will stay to the east and south of the terminals. Will throw in a TEMPO MVFR BR at BWG for just a few hours since they fog in so easily. Could see a brief dip to 5SM at LEX around dawn but will leave that out of the TAF at this time since chances are low and any restriction would be brief. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. Short Term.......MJ Long Term........AMS Aviation.........13
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1111 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-067- 070>072-020415- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY- TAYLOR KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- 1111 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011 /1011 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY FALL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. KYZ066-073>078-081-082-020415- CASEY KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY- RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- 1111 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011 /1011 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY FALL AS PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred on the Rolling Fork River at Boston the first two days in December. The river peaked 40.2 feet at 1 am on December 1st. Flood stage at Boston is 35 feet.
Heavy rains in late November brought minor flooding to the Green River at Woodbury on December 1st and 2nd. The river crested at Woodbury at 35 feet at 5 am December 1st and fell below flood stage at 4 am December 2nd. Flood stage is 33 feet. Downstream of Woodbury, the Green River barely reached flood stage at 17 feet during the afternoon of December 2nd.
The Green River at Rochester crested at 18.0 feet around 4 AM CST on December 1. The river had been above flood stage since late November Flood stage at Rochester is 17 feet. Minor flooding occurs at this level.
The Green River at Brownsville had been in flood since late November, cresting around 20.8 feet late in the evening of November 30.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 350267, 350268, 357688, 357689.