Tornado and Hail in Kentucky, April 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
152 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.DISCUSSION...
1 ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS PASSING NOW AND ANOTHER ROUND IS JUST
UPSTREAM...POISED TO ENTER LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WE
WARM SECTOR. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL COME THEN...AS WE
DESTABILIZE. MAIN THRUST WILL CERTAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN WITH STILL
HIGH PWS AND WALL-TO-WALL PCPN LOOKING UPSTREAM. ANOTHER 2-3" THRU
TONIGHT-EARLY TOMORROW AM CAN BE EXPECTED. THEN AFTER A GENERAL
LULL IN WX TUESDAY...ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES WITH MORE OVERRUNNING
PCPN OVERWHELMING FA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER 2-3"
SWATH DEVELOP/MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL EXAGGERATE ALREADY ONGOING
FLOODING AND CONTINUE TO THRUST MAJOR-RECORD FLOOD LEVELS HERE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE RUNNING THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO STILL BE GOOD THIS PACKAGE WITH NO RESPITE IN
SIGHT SAVE FOR THE TUESDAY RECHARGING LULL. KEEP IN MIND SLGT RISK
CONTINUES AS WELL...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LARGE CYCLONE FINALLY LIFTS BULK OF MRH/UVM FIELD NORTH AND EAST
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RESULTANT POST SYSTEM ZONAL-NWLY FLOW
ACTION WILL MEAN DRY WEATHER FOR US THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND INTO FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY POSSIBLY. ANOTHER FROPA-RELATED CHANCE OF PCPN
THEN COMES IN LATER SAT-SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE ON THRU WEST-TO-EAST AND NOT OFFER NEARLY THE QPF AS
HAS BEEN FELT RECENTLY. MORE RECOVERY SLATED POST SUNDAY SYSTEM
PASSAGE WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW VFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH EACH ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...AND MAY FLIRT WITH IFR AT TIMES. MID AFTERNOON
PASSING ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MID EVENING ROUND
AND THEN ANOTHER LATE NIGHT ROUND. VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR OR BLO
DEPENDING UPON PASSAGE OF STORM CENTER. WILL KEEP VCTS IN FORECAST
ONCE WE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING...SLYS GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS AT
TIMES. GENERAL LULL IN PCPN WILL BE FELT TOMORROW BEFORE NEXT BIG
ROUND COMES TOMORROW NIGHT-WED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-260900-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
246 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
ENTIRE QUAD STATE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEADLY LIGHTNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PENNYRILE OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. REFER
TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
REFER TO OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PAH TO SEE ALL THE FLOOD
PRODUCTS AND DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT APPEARS THERE MAY
BE A BREAK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...BRINGING
5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LAST FRIDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 INCH
RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

MOST AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
RIVER CRESTS MAY CHALLENGE HISTORICAL VALUES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS AT OUR WEB
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PAH.

THE WIND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY COULD BECOME A HAZARD AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS INTO
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE MAY BE COMMON AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS UPON
ITS PUSH ACROSS AND OUT OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS REQUESTED...AND
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT TOO. CONTINUED REPORTS OF
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ENCOURAGED AS WELL.