During the evening hours of May 30, a strong line of thunderstorms formed in north central Kansas bringing isolated areas of gusty winds to Republic and Cloud Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
During the evening hours of May 30, a strong line of thunderstorms formed in north central Kansas bringing isolated areas of gusty winds to Republic and Cloud Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 8:25 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 925 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... ADVANCING SQUALL LINE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT IS POISED ACROSS SMITH AND ROOKS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD IT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SQUALL LINE HAS UNZIPPED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNZIP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SOUTHWARD TO THE KS/OK BORDER. MU CAPE VALUES NEARING 3000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY COMPONENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS NEAR 80 KTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS SQUALL LINE IN S NEB...SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST CONCERNING THREAT...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS BEING A SECONDARY THREAT. MESOVORTEX FORMATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH HIGH 0 TO 1 SRH VALUES OF BETWEEN 300 AND 500 J/KG...SO ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL WANE WITH THE INCREASE OF CI NH ISOLATED POCKETS OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SQUALL LINE SPIN UPS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODEL INDICATED THAT THE STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MANHATTAN AND WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EAST OF MANHATTAN. THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS AS THE APPROACH THE TOPEKA/EMPORIA AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE TREND OF THE HRRR MODEL IS TO HAVE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND UPDATE APPROPRIATELY. JL && .DISCUSSION... UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TREND BECOMING APPARENT IN THE LATEST IMAGERY. UPPER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY AND WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE COMBINED WITH HIGH LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF AND VERY HIGH-BASED STORMS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. 700MB LEVEL WAS QUITE WARM AND DRY IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH 15C TEMPS COMMON IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER THE EML HAS SURGED NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND AIDED IN KEEPING WINDS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. 19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUT A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THAT STATE. DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS NEAR GARDEN CITY WITH SURFACE LOW IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KT. WITH AT LEAST SOME LOWER CLOUD PERSISTING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...AND WITH MANY TRAVELERS AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON THIS HOLIDAY...PLAN TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW MAY NOT BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A COMPLEX POSSIBLY FORMING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND SURGING EAST INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS. 16Z HRRR MODEL MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF IN THIS REGARD...AND THE 12Z 4KM WRF IS SIMILAR THOUGH A FEW HOURS SLOWER. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL AS STRONG LIFT OCCURS ALOFT TO PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION...WITH MODERATE CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR STILL ANTICIPATED. WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN IF THE ABOVE MODELS VERIFY AND THE STORMS TAKE ON LINEAR SHAPES AS THEY ENTER THE AREA...BUT HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS WILL REMAIN IF THE STORMS CAN STAY SEPARATE LONG ENOUGH. MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL. STORMS MOVING AWAY FROM THE DEEPER FORCING AND INCREASING INHIBITION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES SHOULD LEAD TO A DOWNWARD TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR MORE OF THE AREA INTO THE MORNING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND...BUT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE RULE AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE. 65 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF A WEAK WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT OBVIOUS SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY OR LIFT A SFC PARCEL. NEVERTHELESS THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A SFC FEATURE AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE 50S GIVEN WEAK WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY IN THE NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SEEMS REASONABLE. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE MORE MID LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING IN AND PROVIDING MORE INHIBITION TO CONVECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND AND NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHERN KS FRIDAY NIGHT AND MEANDERING IN THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY WEAK PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRESS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CONCERN IS THERE SHOULD BE SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO DEPEND ON CAP STRENGTH AND DIURNAL PROCESSES. THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WOULD SEE A STORM FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 PERCENT...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THINK THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IF ANY FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN 850 TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE PLAUSIBLE. WOLTERS && .AVIATION... GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD AFFECT KMHK AROUND 05Z THEN KTOP AND KFOE A COUPLE HOURS LATER. CERTAINTY OF TERMINALS ACTUALLY RECEIVING THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS...SO KEPT TSRA OUT FOR NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY WHEN/IF CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT. JL/BYRNE && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 854 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010200- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 854 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...WITH A LOW END TORNADO THREAT VERY NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS THEY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO SOME OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:11 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter near Jamestown reported a 60 mph wind gust.
A trained spotter near Belleville reported a 60 mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 309243, 309244.