Hail in Kansas, May 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
259 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ONSHORE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WAS HELPING TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST FOCUS IS CENTERED ON INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT. STRONG H85 NOCTURNAL JET WITH
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESS...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO 7-8 C/KM RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
PUSHING 2000 J/KG. BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE SUB 1KM LCL
VALUES. PER THE NAM...NARROW AXIS OF 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OF
150-200 M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO QUINTER.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS A DEFINITE CONCERN AS MIXING RATIOS
OF 12-14 G/KG WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE ROUGHLY TWO
INCHES OF PRECIP WOULD BE NEEDED OVER A SIX HOUR PERIOD TO
GENERATE HYDRO CONCERNS. GIVEN LONGER DURATION OF THIS
EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH
IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME ONE BE TO HAVE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. A WIND ADVISORY
APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS.

MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
BROADER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY SUNDAY. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO
TEMPS ON MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. OPERATIONAL GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. MEANWHILE...THE EC HOLDS THE
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT BACK TO THE WEST RESULTING IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MID 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. GIVEN THIS
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GEFS MEAN
RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1133 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF TAF
PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THEN LOW CIG/VIS THREAT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THOUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. MODERATE...POSSIBLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE AND  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...I CANT RULE OUT IFR CIGS/VIS
DEVELOPMENT TUE MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY
THIS AS A PREVAILING GROUP...SO I WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR AFTER
10Z IN BOTH TAFS FOR NOW.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1151 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241445-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1151 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2011 /1251 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING EAST AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED A FEW STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

DR