Hail in Kansas, May 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

AN UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CURLED INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
HAD BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN TEXAS WITH A FEW CELLS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY INITIATE ACROSS OKLAHOMA THEN SPREAD
NORTHEAST AS A MID LEVEL JET STREAKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND A GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE FACTORS AND AN INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
COOLING THERMAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL.
THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS LOW AS SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE
BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CAPE DOES EXIST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. WITH THE COLD CORE OVERHEAD
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONG TO ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW OR
TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALBEIT LESS COVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP AND WE REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNDER A
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ATTEMPT TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER 2 PM SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY A
MVFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE...LOCATION AND TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE REGARDING THE CURRENT TAFS. AFTER
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY.

KURTZ

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL.
LIMITED RISK FOR TORNADOES.
ELEVATED RISK FOR LIGHTNING.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE GREATEST RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THIS RISK OF A SHORT LIVED TORNADO IS LIMITED...AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...IF ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE ANDERSON          36.64N 94.42W
05/11/2011                   MCDONALD           MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY ASSESSMENT TEAM
            CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO EAST OF ANDERSON. MULTIPLE
            LIMBS DOWN...TREES DOWN...AND ROOF DAMAGE TO A BARN ALONG
            CEDAR STREET. APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH OF THREE QUARTERS
            OF A MILE WITH A PATH WIDTH OF 75 YARDS. WIND SPEEDS
            ESTIMATED BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH.

&&

JTK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

MOZ096-122215-
DOUGLAS MO-
429 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROME...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF AVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVA...BRUSHYKNOB...GOODHOPE...ROME AND
SQUIRES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3706 9269 3706 9236 3681 9268 3687 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 215DEG 25KT 3689 9272

GRIFFIN