Hail in Kansas, June 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.UPDATE...
830 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

POSSIBLY OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT IN FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS. THIS WOULD BRING IT
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA BY 0330-0400Z...SIMILAR TO
THE LATEST RUC WIND FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.

HAVE ADJUSTED ALL PARAMETERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
HAVE UPPED CLOUD GRIDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/PROXIMITY
TO LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET AND BETTER MOISTURE DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH. A WEAKER JET SHOULD MOVE IN TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ADJUSTED POPS UP JUST A BIT IN THESE AREAS. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

FOR MONDAY REMOVED DAYTIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN DOWNWARD
MOTION AND LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

007

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
233 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.  FURTHER NORTH IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE MOIST.  THE BEST
LIFTING LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.  MUCAPE VALUES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 5000J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HOWEVER WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE STRONG INHIBITION AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  THE 700MB TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BY THIS
TIME THE BEST LIFTING IS ALREADY PAST.  THE BIG QUESTION OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IF THE FRONT AND 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE INHIBITION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WILL THERE BE
ENOUGH LIFTING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND CAPE AVAILABLE.  ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE.  CURRENT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATED UP TO AROUND 700MB BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN REGARD TO THE MOISTURE ABOVE THAT LEVEL. IF
THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFTING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT TAPS INTO THIS
MOISTURE OR IF THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AS FORECAST...STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FORMING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT THEY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE INHIBITION TO HAVE LESS OF AN
EFFECT ON THE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

MONDAY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING IN CASE SOME CONVECTION LINGERS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE WINDY AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  THE WIND SHOULD
BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AS THE CAPE AND MOISTURE PROFILE IMPROVE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA. MODELS HAVE THE BEST
LIFTING AND MOISTURE ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AS
THERE IS STILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE
DURING THE MORNING.  ALSO A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  THE AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO.  DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE CWA. POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...HOWEVER THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS
LOCATED. DURING THE EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF EASTERN
COLORADO...BRINGING DRY AIR WITH IT. THIS MAY HELP SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
233 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS FARTHER NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.  AS A RESULT THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...BUT HAVE KEPT CHANCES MENTIONED AS LIFTING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH HELP FROM
THE 850MB JET MAY PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  OTHERWISE THERE
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE DECIDING WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE...WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA OR RETREAT
TO THE NORTHERN CWA.  WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP CHANCES OUT FOR
NOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE
100 DEGREES.

JTL
&&

.AVIATION...
1100 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES AT KMCK THAN KGLD THROUGH 09Z OR SO. HAVE INCLUDED CB AT
KMCK...AS CAP HAS BEEN DECREASING NEAR THE TERMINAL BUT IS STILL
PRESENT. A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY. IFR
CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE AS CEILINGS LOWER...BUT ANY FOG WOULD
NEED TO BE ADVECTION FOG DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. DEW POINTS SHOULD
BE DECREASING AS AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD FOR REDUCED VIS BEFORE DEW POINTS BEGIN DECREASING. IFR
CEILINGS WILL SCATTER AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND MIXING
INCREASES DURING THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE AS THE FRONT
MOVES AWAY.

CJS/007
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
249 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2011 /349 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS IN THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODES ARE EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

007

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1239 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2011

NEZ080-270715-
HITCHCOCK-
139 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 136 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF STRATTON NE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 10076 4000 10076 4001 10131 4009 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 258DEG 28KT 4002 10117

THEDE