Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, June 1, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
211 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST AS CIN IS ERODED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE AS FORECAST...STRONGEST IN THE NORTH BUT DECREASES TO
LESS THAN 30KTS IN THE SOUTH. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS
EVENING SHEAR WILL IMPROVE AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP IN THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM NO
REAL AREA WILL BE FAVORED...THOUGH MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WHERE THERE IS SOME SUBTLE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE
WIND FIELD. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY 06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
NOSE OF LLJ MOVES NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON THURSDAY
WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARMING FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT PEAK HEATING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN. HOWEVER...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT. AN ISOLATED HIGH
BASED STORM WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE...BUT MOS POPS ARE LOW AND QPF
OUTPUT NIL. LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM ANOTHER PROBLEM. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS NOW
SHOW THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AT PEAK
HEATING. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. ON
SATURDAY...FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT ALIGNS WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. POST
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
211 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WILL BE CENTERED ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...IT WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. AGAIN THE LOCAL AREA WILL FEEL THE FRINGE EFFECTS OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN AFTEROON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...BUT CAN SAY BEST CHANCES WOULD BE
IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUCH PAINTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO GET THE BALL ROLLING.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1135 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EFFECTIVE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. WILL
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WITH A CB GROUP FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND
WITH DETAILS AS NEEDED. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY. INTERMITTENT MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS MAY RESULT SHOULD A STRONG STORM DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AROUND
15G20KT BEFORE BECOMING STRONG ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY
AT AROUND 25G35KT WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

50
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
256 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

THERE REMAINS FIRE WX CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEVELOPING SFC
TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW
FAR EAST DRY LINE WILL MIX ON BOTH AFTERNOONS. THINK EASTERN
COLORADO ZONES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH
AFTERNOONS AND WITH MUCH LESS RAINFALL ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO FUELS WILL MORE LIKELY BE CRITICAL THERE AS WELL. WITH
FIRE WX THREAT TIED DIRECTLY TO VERY MESOSCALE
FEATURE...CONFIDENCE NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH...ALTHOUGH MAY REEVALUATE ONCE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLES/6Z
DATA COMES IN.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT WED JUN 1 2011 /1139 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.