Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, February 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.UPDATE...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

INTERESTING SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE CHANCE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY 54 TO THE EAST OF THE TURNPIKE....ANGLING DOWN
ALONG THE TURNPIKE NEAR ICT/IAB. MOIST BL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
KS SEEING DWPTS ON THE LOW 60S.  THIS HAS LED TO SBCAPE VALUES OF
1200-1800 J/KG ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK...EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING...HAS LED TO AMPLE BULK SHEAR OF
50-60KTS FOR POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS CLOSER TO NEAR KP28
WE COULD SEE WINDS BACK AND PULL SOME HIGHER DWPT AIR NORTHWEST TO
NEAR NEAR KINGMAN AND ICT.  THIS TURNING IN THE LOW LAYERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED STRONG TORNADO THREAT IN THE WARM
SECTOR IN AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...WHERE THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT THIS CHANCE IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON
WHETHER STORMS CAN BECOME SFC BASED. NOT EXPECTING ALOT OF
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY ON...AS CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT
INITIAL CONVECTION FROM GETTING GOING...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY AROUND
00Z...WHERE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MESSY FORECAST WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG OF NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT TODAY. WILL SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
AROUND 21Z/SUN AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH MIXING IN THE LOW LAYERS INCREASING
SOME.

EXTREMELY TOUGH CALL ON WHERE TO PUT THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF KICT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PLAY INTO AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS AND CEILINGS. A
FURTHER NORTH POSITION...MIGHT ALLOW SOME BRIEF CLEARING AT KICT
LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND DRYLINE. GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR...PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. COULD ALSO SEE A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL...REACHING KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 03Z/MON AND
POSSIBLY BY 06Z/MON IN KHUT AND KICT.  THIS SNOW WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...BUT COULD DROP CEILINGS TO NEAR IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MESSY FORECAST WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED UNTIL PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
KS MIDDLE MORNING AND THEN DRYLINE AND/OR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
KHUT/KICT/KCNU. EXTREMELY TOUGH CALL WFNT LIKELY TO IN THE
VICINITY OF OF KICT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO
AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS AND CEILINGS. A FURTHER
NORTH POSITION COULD ALLOW SOME BRIEF CLEARING AT KICT LATE
AFTERNOON BEHIND DRYLINE. GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATES WILL FOCUS ON DENSE FOG FOR THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TDY-TONIGHT
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CENTRAL
KANSAS POSSIBLY SEEING THE FOG HANG AROUND THE LONGEST...THUS WILL
EXTEND THE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND STILL MIGRATING NORTH. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DECENT MOISTURE OVER-RIDING THE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY SPARKING
OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION UNTIL PERHAPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT COULD GIVE WAY TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS TODAY THEN CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
INCREASE GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD AND CHANGING
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE INCH OR LESS.

MON-TUE
THE STAR LOOKS TO SHINE BRIGHTLY THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

EXTENDED: WED-SAT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHALLOW COLD AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED. WEAK
RETURN FLOW COMMENCES ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS WITH DRY AIR STILL PRESENT IN THE MID LAYERS WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE AREA. HEADING INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO RACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EJECT OUT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW CLOUDS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
LEVELS IN THE LOW CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  28  49  33 /  40  50  10  10
HUTCHINSON      54  26  49  34 /  30  50  10  10
NEWTON          55  27  48  32 /  40  50  10  10
ELDORADO        60  29  47  30 /  50  70  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  31  49  32 /  30  70  10  10
RUSSELL         40  23  50  33 /  20  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      50  23  51  34 /  20  50  10  10
SALINA          40  25  46  32 /  30  50  10  10
MCPHERSON       48  26  48  32 /  30  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  37  47  30 /  30  80  10  10
CHANUTE         65  34  45  30 /  40  80  10  10
IOLA            64  33  45  30 /  50  80  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  35  46  30 /  40  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091-092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281830-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1218 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA THORUGH THE MID DAY HOURS...
PLEASE SEE LATEST DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A WARM FRONT WILL STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
BRING RICH GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE OVER RIDES
THIS BOUNDARY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND CLEARING SKIES CAN SPREAD EASTWARD FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THIS CLEARING
REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CHANCES FOR A
FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. THE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ/KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
856 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     DENSE FOG        SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
02/27/2011                   CHAUTAUQUA         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS REDUCDED VISIBILITIES TO A
            QUARTER TO A HALF OF A MILE.

0848 AM     DENSE FOG        EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
02/27/2011                   SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 100 YARD VISIBILITY AT WEBB AND
            HARRY.

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
100 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

KSZ082-083-091-092-271945-
HARPER-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
100 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARPER...KINGMAN...SEDGWICK AND SUMNER
COUNTIES...

AT 1257 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARGONIA...OR 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF ANTHONY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KETCHAM