A strong upper level storm system moved across the southern plains region into the Ozarks region. A cold front moved down across the central plains into the Ozarks.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A strong upper level storm system moved across the southern plains region into the Ozarks region. A cold front moved down across the central plains into the Ozarks. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms developed along the front with a couple supercells ahead of the main line. These severe storms caused damaging winds and large hail up to half dollars in size.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 6:03 PM CST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 603 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .UPDATE... /ISSUED 519 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/ THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FIRST WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE THE HRRR IS INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE QUITE A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THAT MAY ACT TO WEAKEN THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIFT OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SURFACE BASED STORMS TO GET GOING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE HAVE RECENTLY HAD ONE CELL TRY AND FIRE ACROSS BOONE COUNTY ARKANSAS...BUT THE CAP WON THAT BATTLE. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO AROUND WAURIKA OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALSO CORRESPONDS NICELY TO AN AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS. AS THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST WITH THAT LEAD IMPULSE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BE BROKEN AROUND THE INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IF STORMS CAN GO IN EITHER PLACE...THE LACK OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING COMBINED WITH AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE MAIN DRY LINE AND TRIPLE POINT REGION WILL MOVE OUT TOWARDS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES...POSING YET ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. DISCRETE CELLS ARE AGAIN FAVORED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL HAVE A STRONG NORMAL COMPONENT TO THE DRY LINE. BY ABOUT 06Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTH SUGGESTING ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD TRANSITION TO A LINEAR OR QLCS MODE. SCHAUMANN && .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...FORECAST REMAINS COMPLEX. THE FIRST OF A FEW UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN LAUNCHED TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CAP STRENGTH. WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF WICHITA KS TO CLINTON MO AND NEAR ST. LOUIS. AS EXPECTED CONVECTION IS FIRING IN KANSAS AS A LEAD IMPULSE ENTERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TO THIS POINT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS LEAD WAVE IS AFFECTING THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS SW MO...E OK AND MUCH OF ARK. LAPS INDICATES THAT SURFACE BASED CIN IS WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL BE AWAITING CONFIRMATION FROM THE 21Z RAOB AND WATCHING RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY. STILL THINKING THAT THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND FROM CENTRAL ARK TO THE NORTHEAST. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON THE CAP OVER E OK. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SEVERE RISKS REMAIN CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND WHETHER OR NOT THE DRY LINE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATING AND TAKING IT OVER. TRENDS FROM THE RUC AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STOUT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 60KT AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 40KT. EXPECTATIONS FOR INSTABILITY HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH MLCAPE IN THE 750 TO 1250 J/KG RANGE. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING E OK FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE WOULD BE ON THE RECEIVING END OF STORMS THAT INITIATE IN THAT REGION. SUBSEQUENT SOUNDINGS AT 00Z AND 03Z WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CAP STRENGTH AND IF INCOMING LARGE SCALE LIFT IS EFFECTIVELY REMOVING THE CAP. HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE. SHEAR AND STORM MOTION VECTORS CUT ACROSS THE DRY LINE...WHICH INDICATES THAT THESE CELLS COULD MOVE OFF THE DRY LINE AND POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IS MOST PRONE TO THIS RISK. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING THE CAP AND ASSUMING THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT TAKE OVER THE DRY LINE TOO SOON. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DRY LINE TO BE IN PLAY IS THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT... SFC LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ILLINOIS AND THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...ENDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. MONDAY...STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT EAST WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. STRATUS FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD THIN A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH PROSPECTS OF SOME SOLAR INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO A MODEST REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID 40S. STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ONLY KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE. A QUIET DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS REGION. THIS SPELLS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS. THE RAIN WILL END BY LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GRIFFIN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...CURRENTLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR STATUS DECK ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. A WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA IS NOW STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THIS STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 816 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010230- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 816 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... ELEVATED TORNADO RISK. ELEVATED HAIL RISK. SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK. DISCUSSION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING DRY LINE APPROACH FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE WOULD AGAIN LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE SOUTH OF A NEOSHO TO NIXA TO SALEM LINE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ANY STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A LINE...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 4 AM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEST OF AN OSCELOA MISSOURI TO A COLUMBUS KANSAS LINE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...THEN MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL RACE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT GREATER THAN 50 MPH AT TIMES. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) WFO SGF
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 139 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:24 UTC.
5 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency manager reported 5 power polls down.
Trained spotter reported one inch size hail.
Large trees were uprooted in Pittsburg, Kansas. Pea size hail was also reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 281958, 278100, 278099, 278098, 281959, 278097, 278096.