Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 8 to 9, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WILL SHOW WITH VCTS FOR
NOW AT KICT AND KCNU...AND AMEND AS NEEDED IF IMPACT ON THE TAF
SITE LOOKS MORE IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTION. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS MORE PROBABLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011/

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
WARM FRONT HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF I-70 LATE TONIGHT. A DRYLINE
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO FAR WESTERN OK. STRONG
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE ~3000 J/KG) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/S OF WARM
FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE INTO EARLY THIS EVE AS GULF MOISTURE
INCREASES VIA SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MLCIN WEAKENS LATE THIS
PM/EVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES LIFTING NEWD AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVE PROVIDING LIFT. ISOLATED-WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY INTIATE IN THE WARM SECTOR 22Z-00Z AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS POSSIBLY AFFECTING S-CNTRL/SERN KS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAIRLY STRONG AT 40-50 KT AND THE CAPE/SHEAR IS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD NIGHT TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH
LOWS ABOUT 20 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
PRIMARY CONCERN IS MAJOR! EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON SUN AS INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEBRASKA NE TO ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. SUCH BEHAVIOR
WILL INDUCE LWR-DECK FLOW TO NOT ONLY INCREASE GREATLY...BUT GRADUALLY
VEER TOWARD THE SW SUN MORNING. SUCH A TRANSITION WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER
AIR NE ACROSS MOST OF KICT COUNTRY THEREBY RESULTING IN AN EXTREME FIRE
FOR ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS AS WELL FOR GREENWOOD...ELK & CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTIES. AS SUCH FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR EACH OF THESE
COUNTIES FROM 12N-9PM. A SECOND CONCERN: STRONG TO SVR TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM LATE SAT AFTERNOON-LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS A
DEEPENING MID-UPR DECK TROF GRADUALLY DEEPENS WHILE MOVING E ACROSS NRN
ROCKIES. THE FEATURE WILL EJECT A FEW IMPULSES NE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS &
AS IT APPROACHES RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE N OVER ERN
HALF OF KS. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR OVER NE KS
& NRN MO SAT AFTERNOON & EVENING A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL EXTEND S/SW OVER MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY SAT AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER
SPEED & DIRECTIONAL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE & WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW SUPERCELLS LATE SAT AFTERNOON & NIGHT. INITIATION WILL OCCUR CLOSE
TO I-135 SAT AFTERNOON WHERE CLOSEST TO APPROACHING DRY LINE WHICH WILL
OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT. AS PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUNCHES E ACROSS CNTRL
& SC KS BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG/SVR TSRA WILL SHIFT E TOWARD SE KS SUN
AFTERNOON AS MID-UPR LOW SURGES E/NE FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS.

NEXT WEEK:
A NICE START TO THE WORK-WEEK AS DEAMPLIFYING MID-UPR RIDGE SPREADS E
ACROSS CNTRL 1/3 OF U.S. HOWEVER A GRADUALLY DEEPENING MID-LVL TROF WILL
VENTURE E FROM THE ROCKIES TO WRN/CNTRL KS TUE NGT & WED. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW WILL VENTURE SE TOWARD THE WRN RED RIVER THEREBY ENABLING GULF
MOISTURE TO RETURN QUICKLY TO CNTRL & ERN KS. AS SUCH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
-TSRA ARE EXPECTED FROM TUE NGT-THU. THERE'S CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY
BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS FROM WED ONWARD WITH RESPECT TO COLD-FRONTAL
BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS TO WHEN TSRA WILL
TRANSITION TO -SHRA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT MOST ASPECTS OF INHERITED
FORECAST INTACT.

FIRE WEATHER...
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY ON SAT TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BUT
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD RESULT IN NO GREATER THAN A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR ALL AREAS ON SAT. SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT MATTER!
WITH SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE SW & GREATLY INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST OVER MOST
AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE PARTS OF SE
KS. AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS
AS WELL AS GREENWOOD...ELK & CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES FROM 12 NOON TIL 9 PM
SUN. ONE IS STRONGLY URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY AS THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE INCREASED TO A RED FLAG WARNING DURING
THESE PERIODS.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARDS: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STRATUS HAS ERODED NORTHWARD TO ABOUT I-70...AND TRENDS INDICATE
RSL AND SLN WILL BE CLEAR BY 19Z OR SO. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS PM...THEN WILL
LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL KS BY 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OR MOVE NEWD INTO S-CNTRL/SERN
KS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF AREA LATE TONIGHT.
POSSIBLE SITES AFFECTED INCLUDE HUT/ICT/CNU AND WILL CARRY A VCTS
FOR NOW. FOG CHANCES LOOK MUCH LESSER TONIGHT...HOWEVER MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT AM AT CNU. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  90  65  79 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      61  89  64  77 /  20  20  30  10
NEWTON          62  90  65  79 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        64  90  66  80 /  40  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  90  67  80 /  40  10  20  20
RUSSELL         56  90  58  74 /  10  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      56  90  58  73 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  91  65  77 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       62  89  65  77 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  89  68  81 /  40  10  10  40
CHANUTE         65  88  67  81 /  40  10  20  40
IOLA            64  87  67  80 /  30  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    66  88  67  81 /  40  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
530 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FROM OKLAHOMA...THEY MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS...WITH
A LOWER PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL AREAS FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND OVER AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG...AND
EAST...OF THE TURNPIKE ON SUNDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL-SIZED AND DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PART
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DURING WHICH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PART OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...FOR ALL AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND OVER MOST
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE
STRONG WITH NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.

A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO NEWTON TO HILLSBORO. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS SUNDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

KSZ093-082345-
COWLEY-
555 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COWLEY COUNTY...

AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILOCCO...OR 28 MILES
SOUTH OF WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORM MAINTAINS
INTENSITY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE
WEATHER THREATENS.

MCGUIRE