Tornadoes and Hail in Indiana, May 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING DUE TO A WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF
THE AREA. ONE SLOWER MOVING AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF INDIANA. BOTH AREAS OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND THEREFORE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THIS HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 100 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE EAST
HOWEVER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND WARMER ACROSS THE
SOUTH DUE TO BOUNDARY POSITION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID
50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OPENING UP AND SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE FORECAST OF ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...IT STILL APPEARS TO BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN FAST FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR EACH DAY. BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS COOL SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SQUALL LINE PROGRESSING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 23Z. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE SO
EXPECT IT TO PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND GUST TO AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING DOWN ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO COULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER AT KCMH/KLCK. ONCE PCPN MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A BREAK IN PCPN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
548 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-242200-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
548 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND THEN THE ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO THE REPEATED PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEK THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.