Flash Flood in Indiana, March 12 to 14, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
208 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2011

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS INDIANA. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDES A COOL BUT
DRY NORTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TO
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WERE FOUND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RADAR MOSAICS WERE ECHO FREE.

TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN ACROSS
INDIANA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A 40+ KNT 850 LLJ IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WITH EXPECTED MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SOME GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.

CU RULE REMAINS POSITIVE...THUS EXPECT ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE PICTURES. THUS PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD
WORK WELL. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THUS WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE
USED A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS.

QUICK FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES PUSHING
NEAR INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD....HOWEVER A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENCE.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND WITH
ONLY SOME THIN...HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECT GOOD COOLING. THUS WILL LEAN
CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAVMOS FOR LOWS.

850MB TEMPS ON SUNDAY REMAINS AROUND 0C ON SUNDAY...AND TIME
HEIGHTS TRY TO INTRODUCE SOME TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS LOW CONSIDERING THE COOL
AND DRY NORTH FLOW EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY HIGHS.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...COOL BUT DRY
NE WINDS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 850MB TEMPS. THUS WILL
LEAN TOWARD EXPECTED PERSISTENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS AND
MONDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEMS. UPPER RIDGING IS STILL TRYING TO
BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT UNTIL THEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
INVOLVED IN THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL BLEND CONTINUITY WITH HPC FORECASTS.

DID ADD A CHANCE OF RAIN TO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS DO AGREE ON A
FASTER TREND. OTHERWISE LEFT POPS ALONE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FRONTS MOVING THROUGH. FRONTS MAY HANG AROUND FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 120600Z TAFS/...

SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE TOP OF THE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION IS PROBABLY AROUND 010 AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RISE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION DEEPENS. PROFILER DATA INDICATE A RIBBON
OF 45-55 KT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST INDIANA ABOVE
THIS INVERSION. STRONG POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...WHEN NOCTURNAL INVERSION
SHOULD BREAK UP.

MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME SURFACE WINDS APPROACH/EXCEED 15 KTS AFTER
120800Z...WITH STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE WIND HEADINGS GENERALLY
200-230 OVERNIGHT...VEERING TO 240-270 BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COULD BE SOME LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 040
TOWARDS MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH 121800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

INZ021-030-031-036>042-045>049-052-054>057-062>065-072-122100-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
JENNINGS-
347 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ028-029-035-043-044-051-053-060-061-067>071-122100-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-OWEN-SULLIVAN-
GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
347 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS AND SOME STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH ON SATURDAY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS AND SOME STREAMS. SEE
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)