A surface low pressure center moved northeast from eastern Arkansas, passing across northwest Tennessee and into western Kentucky. A closed 500 mb low was centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A surface low pressure center moved northeast from eastern Arkansas, passing across northwest Tennessee and into western Kentucky. A closed 500 mb low was centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. An extended period of rain occurred on the northwest side of the surface low track. The rain was occasionally heavy.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 24, 5:54 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 654 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE DISCUSSION SECTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE 302 PM PRODUCT ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST FORECAST WAS BUILT UPON WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD AS THE FRAME WORK WAS ESTABLISHED NICELY. BASICALLY...ONLY TWEAKED QPF AMOUNTS...AND RAISED POPS TO 100 PERCENT...AS THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT ITS GOING TO RAIN AND MEASURE. NOT MUCH SENSE IN PLAYING 80S/90S PERCENT GAME AT THIS POINT. WE THINK BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 12Z VERSIONS HAVE DEPICTIONS WORTH NOTING. OUR FORECAST IS A 60 PERCENT GFS / 40 PERCENT NAM BLEND. GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS (THEY SHOWED LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING). QPF WAS NOT FORECAST WELL EITHER. SO WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNED BY THE AMOUNT OF QPF THE MODELS ARE LAYING OUT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. TYPICALLY MODELS BIAS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH WIDESPREAD QPF EVENTS. THIS EVENT HAS THE MAKINGS FOR THE SAME...AS H20 VALUES RISE TO AOA 1.4 INCHES DURING THE EVENING...OR TOWARD THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR SEPTEMBER WHICH IS DECENT. DEGREE OF FORCING ENHANCED BY THE JET STRUCTURE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT FOCUSES ON A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PARALLELS EASTWARD MOVING FRONTOLGENETICAL FORCING SEEN IN THE MODELS FROM H850-700 SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES RAINFALL WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UP THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REGION. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WELL...STORM TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THAT IF YOU FACTOR IN THE LAST TWO EVENTS AS WELL. HOWEVER...24 HR FFG VALUES ARE AOA 5 INCHES...SO AM NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. SOME WATER PROBLEMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED FOR SUNDAY. SPC NOW HAS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION OUTLOOKED IN THE DAY TWO. SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY MIGHT WORK NORTH INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SURFACE WAVE. WIND SHEAR AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY BE PRESENT. WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLY FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP ALONG I-64 LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY...LOOKING AT ESSENTIALLY DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS OUR AREA. ..CN.. && .AVIATION... WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FLIRTING WITH KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN STREAMING TOWARD KCGI AND KPAH. FORCING EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SO MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN EXPECTED AT KCGI. HOW FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS STRONGER FORCING AND STEADIER PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TONIGHT IS NOT CERTAIN...SO KEPT THE OTHER SITES VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PINPOINT JUST WHERE TO PLACE THE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY TRIED TO HANDLE IT WITH A COMBINATION OF VCSH AND CB THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE WORST CONVECTIVE BANDING WILL DEVELOP IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...BUT THE LOCATION IS IN DOUBT. AM FORECASTING IT TO ONLY IMPACT KCGI WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEFORE 00Z. SUSPECT THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE IN THE 00Z-06Z MONDAY TIMEFRAME. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REALLY HOLDS BACK ON THE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF KCGI. THUS THE FORECASTS WERE SHIFTED TOWARD LESS DRASTIC CONDITIONS. ..DRS.. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 841 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-251000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 841 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED IN AN AREA OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS STRETCHING FROM MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO MCLEANSBORO ILLINOIS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. BRIEF FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS RAINFALL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY FOCUSING ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI...TO VIENNA ILLINOIS...TO THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH DUSK SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PS/RJP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter measured a storm-total rainfall of 4.5 inches since the evening of the 24th.
A trained spotter measured about 5 inches of rain since the evening of the 24th.
Heavy rain caused runoff problems along Highway 142. Water was reported flowing across Highway 142 about a mile north of Dale.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, September 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 343639, 343640, 342892.