A weak upper-level disturbance tracking along a stationary frontal boundary brought scattered thunderstorms to central and southeast Illinois during the evening of July 7th into the early morning hours of July 8th. A couple of the storms produced damaging wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A weak upper-level disturbance tracking along a stationary frontal boundary brought scattered thunderstorms to central and southeast Illinois during the evening of July 7th into the early morning hours of July 8th. A couple of the storms produced damaging wind gusts. In addition, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches in a few locations produced localized flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 1:48 PM CST, 57 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 248 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 248 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 ANOTHER FAIRLY TYPICAL WARM/MUGGY JULY DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. NO REAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT/HUMIDITY IS EVIDENT IN THE COMING WEEK. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY...ASIDE FROM HOW WARM IT WILL BE...REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN OUR VICINITY. AN INITIAL FRONT WILL BE WITH US TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING TO THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FRONTS SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER WHILE THEY ARE IN THE AREA. 12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO...DO NOT REALLY HAVE A PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IN OUR VICINITY AND JUST UPSTREAM VERY WELL. THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A REMNANT MCV FROM AN UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEX LAST NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TEND TO USE A COMBINATION OF NOWCASTING CURRENT CONDITIONS/MODEL PROGS TO COME UP WITH POP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWER/STORM REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT/S MCS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD THE REGION FROM MISSOURI/IOWA. IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN POPPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NW/SE ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SUGGEST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...EXISTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE SURFACE FRONT...AND THE APPROACHING MCV...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION THREAT GOING TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. SO...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. A FAIRLY SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL HELP KICK THE MCV EAST OF THE REGION BY LATER FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING...WHICH WILL BE WITH US AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE DRY...WARM...AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WILL FLATTEN/RETROGRADE AS UPPER ENERGY RIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THIS ENERGY PASSES TO OUR EAST...IT WILL TUG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE MIDWEST. ONCE THE FRONT IS HERE...IT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK. A FRONT IN THE AREA PORTENDS UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TRYING TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IS TOO TOUGH TO CALL AT THIS POINT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR. BAK && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1255 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 AN MCV COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SE IA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN MO WILL TRACK E/SE ACROSS SW AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SW OF I-74 WITH BEST CHANCES SPI WHERE ADDED TEMPO OF TS FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET...AND MAY NEED TO HAVE ADDED AT DEC TOO. HAVE VCSH WITH CB AT I-74 TAF SITES OF PIA...BMI AND CMI. MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT SE OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES BY OVERNIGHT WITH MCV AND SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NE WINDS. THIS TO ALLOW LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP FROM 08Z-14Z WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. HUETTL && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 247 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-081100- CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT- 247 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR. THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD DOWNSTREAM FROM HAVANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATER FORECASTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. ILZ042-048-051>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073-081100- CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER- LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MENARD-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY- 247 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME... THOUGH HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM... SO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATER FORECASTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. ILZ027>031-037-038-081100- KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 247 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM... SO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATER FORECASTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. ILZ043>046-055-057-081100- CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-PIATT-VERMILION- 247 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM... SO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATER FORECASTS AS THE SITUATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. KH
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 7 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:44 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An empty grain bin was shifted off its foundation by strong winds about 3 miles northwest of Lincoln along old Illinois Route 121. Several corn fields were also flattened in the area.
A tree and power pole were blown down on South Vermilion Street in Potomac.
Heavy rainfall amounts of 3.00 to 5.00 were reported during a two hour period in the early evening hours near Taylorville. Some city streets on the west side of Taylorville had two feet of standing water, and State Highway 104 northwest of Taylorville was impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 333001, 332997, 338328.