Wildfire in Hawaii, March 5 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST OF KAUAI. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MAY
STALL BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY AND THEN WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH BRINGING A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND THE RETURN OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT ITSELF IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN THE MIDST OF THE SWATH
OF CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS...BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. MOSTLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE IN PROGRESS
FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND BY LATE THIS MORNING. THERE WAS ALSO
ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINING JUST SOUTHWEST OF OAHU BUT APT TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE MOST PRECIPITATION WAS OVER THE BIG ISLAND
STRETCHING FROM THE LEEWARD SIDE AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE.

ALL ISLANDS HAVE BENEFITED FROM THE PRECIPITATION WHICH FIRST
STARTED ON KAUAI 2 DAYS AGO...THEN SPREAD TO MAUI COUNTY YESTERDAY
AND THEN THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. MANY AREAS OF MAUI AND THE LEEWARD
AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE RECEIVED ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THE 12 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM TODAY

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE...COLD AIR ALOFT
AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE BIG ISLAND HAS A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND ALSO CHANCE THIS EVENING TOO...SMALLER THREAT FOR MAUI
COUNTY TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY CONVECTION LURKING JUST
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU COULD CLIP THIS ISLAND WITH A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI
COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WHERE ANY BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS COULD CREATE
A FLOOD SITUATION.

TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY JUST WEST OF KAUAI WILL PROGRESS
TO MAUI THEN SLOW AND WEAKEN OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL PROGRESS TO OAHU TONIGHT THEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLOWLY
DRIER OVER MAUI COUNTY SUNDAY. SOME MOISTURE HOWEVER LINGERING
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND THEREFORE A CHANCE OF A HEAVY SHOWER ON BIG
ISLAND SUNDAY.

TRADE WINDS ALREADY PRESENT OVER KAUAI WILL SPREAD TO OAHU TONIGHT
AND REMAINING ISLANDS SUNDAY...HENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED STILL A CHANCE OF
A HEAVY SHOWER OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINING FROM
THE FRONT ALSO APT TO COME BACK IN THE TRADE FLOW OVER FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK CREATING POSSIBILITY OF RATHER WET TRADE WIND WEATHER
PATTERN...SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF ISLANDS ALSO AFFECTED BY PASSING
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS DEPICT UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENING
OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT HOWEVER CAUSE CESSATION
OF TRADE WINDS AND THERE IS NO PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BUT INSTEAD A
 CONTINUATION OF TRADE WINDS BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN UNSTABLE AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS.

WIND ADVISORY OVER HALEAKALA ON MAUI AND HIGHER VOLCANOES OF BIG
ISLAND EXPECTED TO END THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES TO BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER COASTAL WATERS INTO FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY. SURF PRODUCED BY THIS SWELL MAY APPROACH THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF SOME OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AIRMET FOR MT OBSCN WILL BE CANCELED FOR MOLOKAI LANAI AND MAUI
AT THE NEXT REGULAR ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
SFC OBS FROM MAUI LANAI AND MOLOKAI INDICATE THAT THE CEILING HAS
RISEN TO ABOVE 8000 FEET.

AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER KAUAI. HIGH
LEVEL TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 130 AND FL370 OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA.

TEMPO LGT ICING WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 120 AND FL220 AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE PERSISTS AT AND ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT AND
THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOAG
AVIATION...CRAIG