Drought in Hawaii, March 1 to 15, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE GENTLE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. ONLY A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD OR
MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH KAUAI THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY WEATHER
MAINLY OVER THE WEST END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SOME
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL ISLANDS AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND WEAKENS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS EAST OF KAUAI INTO MONDAY EVENING...THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE MAY PERSIST OVER THE BIG
ISLAND FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR AND ONLY ISOLATED
WINDWARD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
ONLY GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER
SINCE THE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOT ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO
LOWS MIGRATING ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COMPUTER MODELS STILL HAVE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE. A LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 170W THURSDAY.  IT MAY OCCLUDE AS A
GALE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI. KAUAI WOULD BE WITHIN
THE INITIAL MOIST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WOULD INCREASE AND BY FRIDAY WET WEATHER AND
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WOULD INCREASE AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TO OAHU. THE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AFFECTING KAUAI AND
OAHU ARE ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

ON SATURDAY THE FRONT MAY BE WEAKENING OVER MAUI COUNTY WITH SOME
MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY. THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND IS DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODEL AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
BUT THE OLD ECMWF MODEL RUN IS MUCH WEAKER ON THE LOW CENTER AND
CONSEQUENTLY ON WIND INTENSITY AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING MAUI
COUNTY. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IS PARTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.

IN ANY CASE THERE IS THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST
END OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD BEGIN WITH KAUAI ON THURSDAY AND OAHU
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL HAS PEAKED AND WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THAT ARE
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH SWELL. THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN SURF BECOMES LOWER THAN THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY SIZE. THE
CURRENT SMALL WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER AND SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BUILDING WEDNESDAY AND PEAK AROUND THURSDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE
WEEK DUE TO THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MENTIONED IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

HOAG