Drought in Hawaii, June 1 to 30, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE MAY 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE TRADE
SHOWERS AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS ALL THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 88-D RADAR COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS BEEN REPAIRED...BUT LINES
MAY CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY GO DOWN AS SYSTEM STABILITY IS SLOWLY
RESTORED.

GUSTY TRADES CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE STATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE SENT A
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SUMMARIZING THE STRONGEST GUSTS
RECORDED. THE HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO EXPECTED MORE OF THE SAME
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PASSING TRADE SHOWERS WILL
OFTEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST GUSTS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE STATE HAS
HELPED REMOVE THE STABLE CAPPING INVERSION AT MID LEVELS AND
ALLOWED THE EXISTING INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE
FULL DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BUBBLING OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. IN THE SHORT
TERM...A BRIEF DECREASE IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPSTREAM BAND OF
SHOWERY CLOUDS REACHES THE STATE. THERE ARE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THIS BAND AT THIS TIME ROUGHLY 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD COASTS.

THE MODELS SHOW THIS UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. SO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE TRADE
SHOWERS ENHANCE UNDER THE UPPER LOW. THE THREAT OF A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF JUNE SNOWFALL ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 12000 FEET
HAS PROMPTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT STARTING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY IF MODELS PERSIST IN
SHOWING COLD UNSTABLE AIR LINGERING.

THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE STATE. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY PERSIST SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED ENHANCED
SHOWERS...BUT STABILITY SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR DECREASED SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS FUNNELING MAINLY THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL ADD THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO THE SCA STARTING 6 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRENDING DOWN BY FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A
LARGER SOUTH SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING SURF TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SOUTH SHORES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A MODEST LATE SEASON
NORTHWEST SWELL DUE IN THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE BUMP IN
SURF HEIGHTS TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AIRMET TANGO WILL
REMAIN POSTED FOR LLVL LEE TURB. THE COLD UPPER LOW ALOFT MAY ALSO
PRODUCE ELEVATED UPDRAFTS AND RESULTANT MID LEVEL BUMPS AS IT SLOWLY
MIGRATES WWD ACRS THE STATE. ISOL AC IS ALSO POSSIBLE AOA 140.

VFR SHOULD REMAIN THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
HOWEVER WINDWARD TAF SITES MAY PULL IN SOME SHORT LIVED MVFR OBS
OVERNIGHT. VCSH SHOULD COVER ANY BRIEF -SHRA. TSRA/+RA AND -SHSN AOA
120 ALONG THE BIG ISLAND LEEWARD SLOPES/SUMMITS MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS FROM 02/00Z-02/05Z.

PHNL...VFR. VCSH AFT 10Z. LIGHT/MOD CHOP DURA/DURC.

PHOG...VFR. MOD CHOP DURA/DURC.

PHLI/PHTO...VCSH. BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE THRU 01/18Z.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM HST THURSDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
CHANNEL.

&&

BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DEJESUS