Drought in Hawaii, July 1 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
740 PM HST THU JUN 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL EASE LATE IN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SURFACE RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
STATE WILL PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS...CONFINING LIGHT RAINFALL TO
THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ON THE KONA SLOPES...LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. TRADE
WINDS WILL REBUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TRADES WERE MODEST IN STRENGTH TODAY...AND A STRONG INVERSION
KEPT SHOWERS TO A BARE MINIMUM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE LOW
END THUS ACCOUNTING FOR A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE STATE.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE BAND
CONTAINS A COUPLE OF MINOR LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE BIG ISLAND WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF
THE BAND...WHERE IT IS THE MOST THICKEST...FOLLOWED BY MAUI COUNTY
THEN OAHU AND KAUAI. THE LEEWARD COMMUNITIES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUE
DRY.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES FROM COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AROUND THE STATE THIS
EVENING SHOWS THE INVERSION AS LOW AS 4700 FEET OVER HONOLULU TO
6500 FT AT KONA. THE RIDGE IS A TAD WEAKER SATURDAY BUT IT WILL
STILL BE STRONG TO KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY. CONTRARY TO EARLIER MODEL
RUNS...THE LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING THE TRADE WINDS LINGER AT
MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS COMPARE TO LIGHT. IN SHORT...A
DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN CONTINUES.

THE TRADES TURN LIGHT TO MODERATE MONDAY WHILE RIDGING SLIPS
SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN THE INVERSION RISING TO ITS NORM OF 8000 FEET.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST. WITH ALL THIS ADDED UP...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A PARTLY CLOUDY FOURTH OF JULY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL
BE ON THE LOW END...PERHAPS SOME FLOATING IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THAT FAVORS THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE KONA SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND WILL EXPERIENCE ITS USUAL PATTERN WITH MORNING SUN
AND SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUDS...AND A ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE NICE STATEWIDE.

TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ERODE...BUT OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN STABLE...WITH A TYPICAL...SUMMERTIME SHOWER PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE ARE NO MARINE ADVISORIES...AND IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE FOURTH. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
TURNING LIGHT TO MODERATE MONDAY.

SORRY TO REPORT...BUT VERY SMALL SURF ON TAP FOR ALL SHORES THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY...
WITH SOUTH SHORE SURF REACHING THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY LEVEL TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...AND NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE TO ISSUE ANY IN THE
NEAR TERM...AS DRY AND STABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER PREVAILS.

TAFS INDICATE THAT VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...PHLI AND PHTO MAY BRIEFLY GO TO MVFR CIGS/VIS
DUE TO PASSING TRADE -SHRA. ALSO...PHNY MAY BRIEFLY HAVE AN MVFR BKN
DECK OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TYPICAL MVFR CIGS FROM AROUND
20Z TOMORROW THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...HARRISON