Damaging Wind in Georgia, November 22, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
656 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUE TO BE ON CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA TONIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG QUESTION WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY. WITH MU CAPE
VALUES INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND A HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SUSPECT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC NOW PUTTING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST SECTIONS TODAY...THEN GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CENTRAL
TONIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NORTH. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION
DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL SHOW
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH HALF OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR OR BREAKING RECORDS. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL A TAD ABOVE
NORMAL.

IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS IT WAS MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE ZONES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY
AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA INTO SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BUT IF LATER RUNS SUPPORT IT...HIGHER
POPS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA BY
MONDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERING MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
MODELS ADVERTISING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND
MAY NOT SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
MONDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 11-22

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1983     42 1937     62 1953     16 2008
                                        1934        1937
   KATL      74 1979     41 1937     62 1934     19 1937
                1942                    1883
                1940
   KCSG      79 1979     50 1972     62 2004     24 2008
                            1956        1982
   KMCN      80 1942     44 1937     68 1992     20 2008

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NOT
BE ANY LOW VSBYS OF CEILINGS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AFTER 15Z-16Z WITH WIND SPEEDS
GETTING UP INTO THE 5-10KT RANGE. FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
VSBYS/CEILINGS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  58  68  41 /  20  80  50   0
ATLANTA         75  59  66  44 /  30  80  40   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  53  60  38 /  30  90  40   0
CARTERSVILLE    75  56  64  39 /  50  90  30   0
COLUMBUS        79  60  70  44 /  30  80  40   5
GAINESVILLE     72  57  66  41 /  30  90  40   0
MACON           80  61  71  42 /  10  80  60   5
ROME            76  55  65  39 /  50 100  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  58  67  40 /  30  80  40   0
VIDALIA         79  63  73  46 /  10  60  70   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
538 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231045-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
538 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE VIRGINIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG
A COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL
BEGIN AROUND LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA THROUGH AROUND 4 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... IT APPEARS THE AREA OF GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS
LINE WHERE INSTABILITIES AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE MORE
FAVORABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
ON WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.