Hail in Georgia, March 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA REACHING THE COAST BY
TONIGHT. A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH
MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST LATE
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS...MUCH OF THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA HAS DESTABILIZED...WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
500-1000 J/KG. HWVR...THE LAPS SNDGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION ARND
750 MB. SOME OF THE PEAKS OF THE THE SW/CENTRAL NC MTNS ARE HIGH
ENUF SUCH THAT THE CAP HAS ERODED AND EVEN A COUPLE OF TOWERING CU
HAVE DEVELOPED. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE STILL DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
LLVL CONVERGENCE IS MAINLY MTN-VLY WNDS ACRS THOSE MTNS. THE OP
MODELS AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SW
CORNER OF NC...BUT DISAGREE ON PRETTY MUCH ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...I THINK MAXING OUT A MID CHC POP OVR THAT AREA
AND HAVING SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY PROPAGATE ALONG A GRAD OF BEST
INSTBY ACRS THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY LOOKS GOOD (WHICH IS WHAT I
INHERITED). THE STEERING FLOW FOR DEEPER CONVECTION IS ACTUALLY
TOWARD THE ESE. BUT GIVEN THE STABLE BL ACRS THE PIEDMONT...WILL
KEEP POP UNDER 15% EAST OF I-26. THIS EVE...ONCE THERE IS A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION SHUD WANE.  ANOTHER FCST CHALLENGE
TODAY IS DUE TO VERY DRY BL AIR THAT HAS BEEN MIXING/FILTERING IN
FROM THE NE...WITH RH VALUES PLUMMETING INTO THE 20S ACRS THE NRN
FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS REQUESTED FOR
THESE AREAS DUE TO RH BELOW 30% AND NE WND GUSTING OVR 20 MPH AT
TIMES. THAT SPS IS OUT TILL 7 PM EDT.

LATER TNGT...850 MB HIGH SHIFTS EAST...RESULTING IN FLOW VEERING TO
SELY THEN SLY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A 1038 MB SFC HIGH
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD). THE NAM AND GFS
DISAGREE ON AMT OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE. I
DON/T KNOW HOW MUCH ANY CONVECTION OVR NE GA WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT
ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE GFS IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY DRY AND
HENCE THE MAV IS ABOUT 2 CATEGORIES WARMER FOR SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPS
THAN THE MET. EVEN THE NAM AND SREF ARE LOW ON POP ALONG UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT. SO I DON/T THINK THE CAD
WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN REAL COOL AIR. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MOS
KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY (BUT STILL ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SIDE). THERE IS BUST POTENTIAL EITHER WAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SE STATES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT THAT THE WEAK
WEDGE WILL PERSIST INTO MON NIGHT PER THE PREFERRED NAM.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE NAM TIME SECTION SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
TURNING TO THE SW BY 12Z MON. HENCE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
BLUE RDIGE MON NIGHT WITH WEAK UPSLOPE/ISENT LIFT...BUT ANY PRECIP
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ON MON...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT WEDGE BOUNDARY
WILL WASH OUT WITH A MILD/SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL DISSIPATE CLOUD COVER ON MON AND FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
MAINLY 60S MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE WITH 80S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...AND 70S
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN OVER THE SE STATES NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER
RIDGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...TO AN EAST COAST TROUGH BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL PORTEND AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND
A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BY FRI. TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL
STILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE...SO DRY AND WARM WX WILL
CONTINUE THEN. AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
THU A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...SO
ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE
COVERAGE DECREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE PIEDMONT.
HENCE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FEATURED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY A
LOW CHANCE ELSEWHERE LATE WED NIGHT. FORECAST CAPE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO
THUNDER SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THU THROUGH SAT...WITH MILD TEMPS CONTINUING OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
ON THU THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. COLDER TEMPS ARRIVE THU NIGHT.
NW FLOW MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. STAYED CLOSE TO
HPC TEMPS WHICH FEATURE TEMPS COOLING TO BELOW AVERAGE BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONTINUED NE WND AND VARYING DEGREES OF MAINLY SCT VFR LVL
CLOUDS THIS AFTN. LIGHTER NE WINDS WL LOSE THE GUSTINESS THIS EVE.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD COVER OVRNGT THRU SUN MRNG. WENT CLOSER TO
THE CLOUDIER NAM...BUT IT MAY BE MORE SCT. IN ANY CASE...NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THRU 18Z SUN.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CUMULUS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTN...WITH A FAIR AMT OF MID LVL CLOUDS AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS FORMING ACRS THE MTNS WEST OF KAVL/KAND. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH SSE INTO THE WRN UPSTATE...SO HAVE ADDED A CB
FOR THE LATE AFTN HRS. THE SHWRS/TSTMS SHUD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVE.
CLOUD CVR EXPECTED TO STEADILY BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF SKY COVER. MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR CLOUDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SHWRS.
IF COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN EXPECTED...MAY SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS OVR
WRN UPSTATE AND KAVL OVRNGT INTO SUN MRNG.

OUTLOOK...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL PCPN CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON
SUNDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS. CLEARING ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH A DRY FCST THRU
TUESDAY AND SHOWERS FCST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-501-503-505-507-SCZ008-009-013-014-201930-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-
CHESTER-
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-201930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>065-509-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-
201930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ510-201930-
EASTERN POLK-
329 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             GRAY COURT              34.61N  82.11W
03/19/2011  E0.88 INCH       LAURENS            SC   PUBLIC

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WATERLOO                34.35N 82.06W
03/19/2011                   LAURENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN IN THE ROAD IN THE VICINITY OF WATERLOO.
            SEVERAL VEHICULAR ACCIDENTS.

0553 PM     HAIL             WATERLOO                34.35N 82.06W
03/19/2011  E0.75 INCH       LAURENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND IN WATERLOO TWO INCHES DEEP.
            LARGEST HAIL AT THEIR LOCATION WAS DIME SIZED. BASED ON
            RADAR THE HAIL MAY HAVE LASTED AROUND 20 MINUTES ENDING
            BETWEEN 610 AND 615 PM.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSS HILL              34.30N 81.98W
03/19/2011                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN FROM WATERLOO TO CROSS HILL

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

GAZ017-018-200000-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-
718 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOCCOA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3468 8354 3465 8329 3462 8324 3460 8318
      3448 8318 3447 8320 3447 8338 3449 8352

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
720 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

SCZ001-004-200000-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
720 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM EDT...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF WESTMINSTER...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WESTMINSTER...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3463 8324 3479 8318 3476 8289 3474 8289
      3472 8285 3470 8284 3468 8284 3457 8288
      3453 8294

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             CROSS HILL              34.30N 81.98W
03/19/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAURENS            SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED LASTING FOR
            AT LEAST SEVERAL MINUTES IN CROSS HILL. BASED ON RADAR
            THE HAIL LIKELY LASTED TO AS LATE AS 625 PM.

&&

OUTLAW