Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 21, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1111 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
STALLS AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LINGER IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND TO KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING OF DEWPOINTS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SHOULD
ALLOW MORE SCATTERED MTN CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN IMPROVING SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE
WEST...AND THE WARM FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE AREA...FORCING WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LESS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL THUS DEPEND MORE ON OUTFLOWS RUNNING EAST
OF THE MTNS LATE TODAY. WILL RAMP UP POPS IN THE MTNS AND NRN
FOOTHILLS...AND TOUCH THEM UP SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE
HIGH CAPE VALUES ON THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST
IS THE VERY HIGH DCAPE VALUES...1300 TO 1500...IN THE SRN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN...WITH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP LAPSES RUNNING
NEAR 30 K THROUGHOUT. THE SLIGHT SEVERE RISK AND HWO WORDING STILL
APPEARS WARRANTED. WITH EXCELLENT INSOLATION THIS AFTN...SOUTHEAST
PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 100 TO 103.

HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...BUT IT SHOULD EXHIBIT A WEAKENING TREND. PATCHY MTN
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WED WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE SHALLOW UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...ALONG WITH A STEADY MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE PROFILES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WED THROUGH WED NIGHT
WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SCT CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE MAV
NUMBERS FOR NOW.

HEIGHTS WILL FALL FURTHER ON THU AS AN UPPER JET LET LIKELY RIDES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LONG
WAVE TROUGH...AND WEAK SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO BRUSH THE MOUNTAINS. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE OH VALLEY. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT JUMP THE MTNS AND DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. SINCE THE NAM/SREF DO NOT...HAVE CHC POP DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD OF A NEARLY DRY FCST LIKE THE GFS. STRONG
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER LAYER LAPSE
RATES INCREASE. THE INCREASED CLOUDS...HOWEVER...COULD LIMIT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY
COOLER THU AFTN.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA BUT REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS
KEEPS US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SHORT WAVE FORCING AND UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE. EVEN THO THE SFC FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE THRU THE DAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS SHUD BE NEARLY
STEADY FROM FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...SOME VARIABILITY REMAINS IN THE MODEL
HANDLING OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PRES THRU THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO CANADA BUT
WITH SHORTWAVES OVER THE ERN CONUS CARVING OUT A PERSISTENT TROUGH
OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING FROM THIS SOLUTION WILL LIKELY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO STALL
AND LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. A MAINLY DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO TIME THESE SHORTWAVES AT PRESENT. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AS MCS DEBRIS HAS PASSED TO THE
EAST OR DISSIPATED. LIGHT SE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE S TO SW WITH
MIXING THROUGH THE AFTN. NEARLY ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NOW
TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SEND THIS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE VICINITY. HOWEVER...THE MODEL
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN THIS
REGARD...SO WILL WAIT UNTIL MTN CONVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND THEN
TRY TO TIME ANY RUN OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT AT THAT POINT. ASIDE FROM
ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MTNS FIRST THIS AFTN...THEN POSSIBLY MOVE OUT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO TIME...BUT A CB CLOUD GROUP WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH
THE KAVL TAF AT 18Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD
WITH SFC WINDS TURNING MORE S TO SW WITH TIME. MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG
MAY BE FORECAST TOWARD DAYBREAK WED PENDING NEW INCOMING MODEL MOS.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ALSO...MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...HG/RWH
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1112 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1112 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCZ064-065-211815-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3535 8279 3545 8267 3526 8257 3518 8280
      3530 8285

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCZ048-049-211815-
MADISON-YANCEY-
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON AND WESTERN YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF SPRING CREEK...OR 11 MILES WEST
OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WALNUT...SWISS...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...LUCK...HOT
  SPRINGS...FAUST AND ALLENSTAND.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3607 8262 3604 8259 3597 8260 3596 8256
      3600 8247 3589 8240 3571 8290 3582 8296
      3584 8292 3588 8291 3593 8292 3596 8286
      3593 8281 3599 8279

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             BENT CREEK              35.51N 82.61W
06/21/2011  E1.25 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   OTHER FEDERAL

            NCDC EMPLOYEE REPORTS DIME TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL IN
            THE BENT CREEK SUBDIVISION.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT BREVARD ROAD AND I-40.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             BENT CREEK              35.51N 82.61W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG