Rip Current in Florida, October 6, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME WITH A
WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTEND FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIB. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN U.S. RIDGING SOUTHEASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMING TIGHTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL ENE FLOW
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WHICH IN TURN, WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE WINDS SLOW DOWN ONCE THEY
MOVE FROM THE OCEAN AND OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
COASTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT AND FURTHER
INLAND FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EAST-WEST CONVECTIVE
LINES TO DEVELOP WITH THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS (I.E.
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATION AGAIN AND AGAIN). INCREASING
WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS TONIGHT AND MOST EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HYBRID/TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIB AND
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM DEVELOPS THE LOW JUST SE OF S.
FLORIDA AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE PENINSULA. AND GFS STILL DEVELOPS
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. BOTH GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
RUN AFTER RUN. ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION,
AS WE THINK THE FINAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN JUST OVER LAND OR JUST ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST...BEING THE MOST RELIABLE MODEL AT THIS TIME, THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...WL ADJUST THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AS
WELL AS RAINFALL PATTERN TO RESEMBLE THE ECMWF PATTERN. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE INDICATED WITH HIGHEST PRECIP SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. AGAIN...WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH TO OUR WEST AND
THE SFC HIGH STILL STRONG ACROSS ERN U.S. AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...STRONG EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS EARN AREAS WITH THREAT
OF TRAINING CELLS TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL ALSO PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GREATLY ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
HIGHEST SAT THROUGH SUN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY RANGING
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ERN AREAS OF S. FLORIDA (ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACTIVITY AND LESSER PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND POSSIBLY BEACH EROSION/MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY, BUT SCT SHOWERS COULD STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH
WINDS AND SEAS STAYING IN THE CAUTION CRITERIA TONIGHT BUT
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY AND
REMAINING ROUGH THROUGH WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  86  76  84 / 40 40 50 70
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  79  85 / 40 40 50 60
MIAMI            76  87  76  85 / 30 40 40 50
NAPLES           71  90  72  89 / 20 30 30 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
504 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-070930-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
504 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES OF MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS REGIME WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
INCLUDING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS BECOME ESTABLISHED. IN
ADDITION, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.