Wildfire in Florida, November 14 to 20, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
226 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT...

...CONTINUED WARM WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN ALL LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET IN AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. THEN AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAND/NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
LIKELY. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN HWO AND UPPED COVERAGE IN
ZFP/GRIDS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR CURRENT
DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
LAST AREAS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST. 12Z MODEL
SUITE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN QUASI
SBRZ FRONT REGIME AS TEMPS WARM QUICKLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TUE NIGHT...AS ANY EVENING SHOWERS FADE WITH THE COOLING AFTER
SUNSET EXPECT ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH MAY KEEP SOME OF THIS EVENT AS
A LOW STRATUS DECK. BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE LAND AREAS AND ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL ZONES. MIN TEMPS EVEN WARMER IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

WEDNESDAY...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE
DOWN EVEN SLOWER AND EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND WITHOUT MUCH PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE DAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES AT 20% OR LESS. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BURN OFF THE
FOG/STRATUS BY THE MID MORNING HOURS AND SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA.

WED NIGHT...TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM PARENT LOW OVER THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY IN THE
30-40% RANGE SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST IF ANY SVR
WEATHER NORTH OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH A POSSIBLE STRONG STORM OR TWO
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MIN TEMP FCST REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE
DUE TO THE FRONTAL TIMING WITH GFS MOS MUCH WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS
AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND TO TRY TO MATCH NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF JAX FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH GENERIC
LOWER/MID 60S FOR EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS.

THURSDAY...FRONT WASHES OUT SLOWLY AS IT MOVES DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS TENDS TO SLOW
THE CLOUD CLEARING PROCESS AND ONLY EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ONLY ABOUT A 5-10 DEGREE JUMP FROM
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BREEZY NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
BY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SOME COASTAL WATERS SHOWERS TO MAKE IT ONSHORE BOTH DAYS WITH
MAX TEMPS REMAINING COOLER AND CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND IN
THE 70S ON SATURDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGE SETTLES DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW
20% AND MAX TEMPS TO WARM UP BACK CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. FOG
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. HAVE MVFR VSBYS IN TAFS STARTING
05Z-06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS 09Z-14Z. LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.
VFR EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT S TO SE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY
ALONG WITH SEAS WITH EASTERLY SWELLS PERSISTING. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WILL BECOME MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  82  62  82 /   0  30  20  20
SSI  61  77  65  78 /   0  20  20  20
JAX  58  81  64  81 /   0  30  30  20
SGJ  63  80  68  80 /  10  30  30  20
GNV  58  83  64  82 /   0  30  30  10
OCF  62  85  65  84 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
845 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...DENSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER ARE EXPECTED. DENSE SEA FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS/JCH