Onshore flow over the Memorial Day weekend increased the risk of rip currents along the coast. Many rescues were performed.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Onshore flow over the Memorial Day weekend increased the risk of rip currents along the coast. Many rescues were performed.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 1:56 PM EST, 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 256 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG 500 MB HIGH 595DM HIGH CENTERED NEAR ERN KY/WRN NC WHICH MAY BUILD EVEN FURTHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FURTHER S...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A TUTT FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 30N63W. LOCALLY...SCT-BKN CU CONTS PUSHING WWD QUICKLY UNDER THE PREVAILING ELY FLOW. TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN AS HOT AS PRIOR DAYS AT THIS TIME...AND CURRENTLY STAND IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-THU. TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER S. SOME REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE MORE FAVORED AREA OVER INLAND SE GA. SOME DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. TUE...DRY AND WARM CONDS PERSIST DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT AND PREVAILING E TO NE FLOW THROUGH 500 MB. PWATS EVEN A BIT LOWER AOB ~1.3 INCHES. PREFER WARMER MET GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT LOW BIAS FROM GUIDANCE. ELY WINDS ~10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. SILENT POPS CONTINUE. TUE NIGHT...NAM AND GFS SHOW A SLUG OF MOISTURE COMING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE E COAST. IN ADDITION...A VORT MAX OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SLIDES SW UNDERNEATH THE MID RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ISOLD CONVECTION OVER INLAND SE GA AND OFF OUR COAST. WILL PLACE IN 15-20% POPS FOR PART OF THE ERN AREAS AT THIS TIME BUT KEEP JUST SHRA FOR NOW. WED...WILL CONT WITH 15-20% POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND NE FL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION. THIS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AND SREF OUTPUT. MAX TEMPS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SE GA IN THE MID 90S WITH LOWER TO MID 90S OVER NE FL...COOLER AT THE COAST. WED NIGHT...NO POPS PLANNED AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAVE ENERGY PUSHES SW OF THE AREA. THU...DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS N OF THE AREA AND WHILE STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FCST HIGHS AGAIN LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...FRI-MON. A FAIRLY LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH PRES CENTERED ACROSS TN VALLEY/SRN OHIO VALLEY ON FRI SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD THRU THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...BROAD LOW PRES IN THE S CENTRAL GOMEX MEANDERS TOWARD THE E DURING THE PERIOD. WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES EVIDENT OVER OUR CWA PER GFS AND ENSEMBLE BY LATE SAT AND INTO SUN AS THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARD THE ERN GULF. GFS AND ECMWF CONT TO ADVERTISE LOW MEAN RH BELOW 500 MB AOB 50% ON FRI AND SAT WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION...SO WILL CONT WITH ONLY 10% CHANCES FOR NOW. TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SUN BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL BUT LEFT FOR NOW. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH FURTHER S WHERE GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. MAY KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MON BASED ON LATEST GFS PROGS BASED ON WEAK PRES GRADIENT RELIANT ON SEA BREEZES TO GENERATE ISOLD CONVECTION. THE GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE BEACH. && .AVIATION... LOCAL FOG TOOLS SENDING MIXED SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. COULD VERY WELL SEE A MIXTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VQQ AND GNV...WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MARINE... LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON SWELLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PORTION OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TOMORROW. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. IN FACT...WE MAY END UP NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA INTERIOR TOMORROW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 94 68 95 / 10 10 20 10 SSI 72 85 73 86 / 10 10 20 10 JAX 67 90 67 89 / 10 10 10 20 SGJ 72 84 70 86 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 67 91 65 91 / 10 10 10 20 OCF 67 92 67 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && SHASHY/SHULER/KEEGAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1152 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-310945- ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY- CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE- COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)- GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM- ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE- 1152 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS... INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SWELLS WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION. A WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 1 NORTHWEST OF RACE POND IN EASTERN WARE COUNTY. SMOKE WILL SPREAD WEST TODAY...GENERALLY IMPACTING AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 1 SOUTH OF WAYCROSS AND INTERESTS TOWARD MANOR. DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS...VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRE MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SMOKE MAY MIX WITH FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A PORTION OF U.S. 1 AND HIGHWAY 177 MAY BE CLOSED NEAR THE FIRE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND EASTERLY SWELLS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. ENYEDI/SHASHY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
928 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM WILDFIRE 9 S STEPHEN FOSTER STAT 30.69N 82.31W
05/30/2011 WARE GA PARK/FOREST SRVC
THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE HAS BURNED 150,333 ACRES AND
WAS 75 PERCENT CONTAINED.
0800 AM WILDFIRE 5 NNW RACE POND 31.07N 82.15W
05/30/2011 BRANTLEY GA PARK/FOREST SRVC
THE RACE POND WILDFIRE HAS BURNED 7,254 ACRES AND WAS 15
PERCENT CONTAINED.
&&
ARSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 954 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 GAZ150-163-302045- CLINCH-WARE- 954 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 ...SMOKE FROM THE RACE POND WILDFIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WAYCROSS METRO AREA THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY... THE RACE POND WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAYCROSS ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 1. SMOKE...DENSE AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD WEST TO NORTHWEST INTO THE WAYCROSS METRO AREA THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRE MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 2 MILES. PEOPLE WHO HAVE RESPIRATORY ALIMENTS THAT CAN BE TRIGGERED BY SMOKE SHOULD CONSIDER STAYING INDOORS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. U.S. 1 AND HIGHWAY 177 MAY BE SUBJECT TO INTERMITTENT CLOSURES.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Jacksonville Beach life guards had numerous rip current rescues on Memorial Day. Onshore flow combined with rough surf made for less than ideal beach conditions on the holiday.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 295848.