Wildfire in Florida, May 1 to 16, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011

.AVIATION...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011/

UPDATE...PRECIP CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND
FORECAST HAS BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LEFT TS IN GLADS AND HENDRY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE COLLIER CO
STORM REMAINS IN THE AREA, AND ANOTHER BRIEF STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE. /TINGLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
AT AROUND 10 MILES PER HOUR, MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 41. A LINE OF
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF PALM BEACH
IS COLLIDING WITH EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF PALM BEACH. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING INLAND AROUND
FORT LAUDERDALE AND THEN GENERATING NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. IT IS LIKELY THAT IN A FEW MORE HOURS
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLAND MONROE EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD
IN COVERAGE THROUGH COLLIER COUNTY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOME OF THIS SHOWERS AROUND THE WEST COAST TO BECOME STRONGER
WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE
SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
WESTERN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE OVER COLLIER COUNTY WHILE
THE MOISTURE IN NEARBY AREAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME.

AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. THIS WILL
MINIMIZE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HAIL EARLY THIS
COMING WEEK.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN PERFORMED TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...(UPDATED 136 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011)

WILL EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH 01/18Z) AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EAST COAST DIMINISH AND ACTIVITY GETS TRANSFERRED FURTHER
INLAND AND WEST. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
BUT HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EVENING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED
OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MID MORNING SUNDAY. OVER
KAPF...ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL AND HAVE SOME IMPACT ON
OPERATIONS. WL INDICATE VCTS AND BKN CEILINGS AT 4-5 KFT RANGE AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z AND AMEND AS NEEDED. WL EXPECT THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE TERMINAL AS MAIN EAST
FLOW WL TEND TO KEEP IT NEAR THE COAST.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER THE CWA. THE SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SCEC WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE CWA
WATERS FOR THE WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...

A DECREASING TREND IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST BETWEEN NOW
AND TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY. HOWEVER...RH
IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE 35 PERCENT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING INLAND MONROE COUNTY
AND WESTERN DADE COUNTY. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
NORTHWESTWARD THERE IS CHANCE THAT A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES
COULD AFFECT SOME AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS NOT FALLEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  83  74  83 / 10 10 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  85  75  85 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI            74  86  75  85 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES           69  91  69  90 / 10 10 -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...04/AT
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...55/CWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
713 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
713 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES...
...WILDFIRES CONTINUE EAST OF NAPLES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THIS WILL KEEP
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

VISIBILITY: WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE IN THE AREA EAST OF NAPLES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND EAST OF GOLDEN GATE ESTATES.
SMOKE FROM THOSE FIRES COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE NAPLES AND ALLIGATOR ALLEY AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH. THIS HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

REDUCED VISIBILITIES, POOR AIR QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE, AND
FIRES MOVING CLOSER TO RESIDENTIAL AREAS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL THE FIRES
BECOME FULLY CONTAINED MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.