Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 24 to 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1008 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.UPDATE...MID/UPPER TROF STILL CONTINUING ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH ANOTHER TROF CONTINUING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN TROF IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE WESTERN MOST REACHES OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE IS NOT
LACKING IN THIS REGION...EVIDENT BY THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WHICH HAD
A PWAT OF 2.16 INCHES. EVEN THE MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDED PWAT
VALUES OF OVER 2 INCHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING DRY AIR SET TO OVERTAKE THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING TODAY.
H5/WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS DRY AIR ALONG THE TROF AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ALONG A LINE FROM ATLANTA THROUGH SLIDELL. AS THIS DRY AIR
SLIDES SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY NORTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. OVERALL...EXPECTING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S OVER NORTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND
SRN GEORGIA.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A FEW SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL COAST ALREADY
THIS MORNING.  SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMING SCATTERED BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS N FL AND
S-CENTRAL GA.  THUS WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSRA IN VICINITY OF
KECP/KTLH/KVLD. DRIER CONDITIONS AROUND KDHN/KALB SUGGEST MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.  DURING THE EVENING...RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALL DAT. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY IN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   93  72  95  73  96 /  50  20  40  30  40
PANAMA CITY   89  76  90  76  89 /  60  20  40  20  40
DOTHAN        94  73  96  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  40
ALBANY        94  73  97  73  97 /  20  20  40  30  40
VALDOSTA      92  72  96  72  94 /  50  20  40  30  40
CROSS CITY    90  72  94  71  94 /  70  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  89  75  89  76  88 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HARRIGAN/EVANS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-250815-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
413 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 /313 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSE TO THE LOCAL REGION...EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY..ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING BACK IN. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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