Drought in Florida, December 1 to 13, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
942 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...00 UTC surface analysis shows high pressure across the
Mississippi River Valley extending from Southern Indiana down into
Mississippi. The pressure gradient across the region was beginning
to relax as this high pressure area spreads eastward. Over the last
couple of hours surface winds have continued to decrease and have
been intermittently calm, resulting in temperatures continuing to
drop into the mid to upper 30s.

Upper air data from 00 UTC and vapor imagery show a highly amplified
trof across the U.S. Southwest. This trof looks like it will cut off
soon across Southern California. Further east, another trof was
beginning to depart into the Western Atlantic. A piece of energy on
the southern end of this trough was analyzed moving across North
Florida.

The primary forecast concern this evening will focus on the
temperatures overnight. Given the latest trends, it is still
expected that we will see a light freeze, particularly across the
western portions of the region where winds will likely be calm for a
longer period of time. This pattern is handled well in the current
forecast, so will make very little changes on the update. The
present configuration of the freeze warning still looks good. Will
make some modifications for the current observations, but no other
substantive changes planned. Have a great night!

&&

.MARINE...As high pressure spreads east this evening, expect winds
and seas to shift to northeast and remain in the 10 to 15 knot range
as the high center remains north of the marine area.

&&

.AVIATION...Currently all terminals are VFR. Light fog will be our
main concern for tonight. Terminals should expect MVFR conditions
between midnight and sunrise, with visibilities ranging from 4 to 6
SM for all terminals.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Thursday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

FL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
     Thursday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

GM...None.

&&

Aviation...Walsh/Block
Rest of Discussion...Godsey

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-010400-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
945 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011 /845 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S WITH TOTAL DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 2 AND 4
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY APPROACH FREEZING ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

MROCZKA/GODSEY