Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, August 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

.PUBLIC UPDATE...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONGEST. LOOKING AT THE
12Z SOUNDING FROM KJAX...ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE IN
RESPONSE TO WARMING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THUS...WE ANTICIPATE FEWER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MODERATE
WINDS IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION WILL FAVOR HAIL REACHING THE SURFACE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WILL CAUSE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN TAFS. MAY NEED TEMPO GROUPS FOR DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH 18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS ADVERTISED...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
AS SWELLS START TO ARRIVE FROM HURRICANE IRENE. WNA WAVE MODEL
INCREASES SEAS TO NEAR 20 FEET OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
IRENE MOVES BY TO THE EAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TIGHTENING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE ZONES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WILL BECOME MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS
SWELLS START TO ARRIVE. HIGH RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM E
CANADA TO OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST. LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER
SE NM. COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. VORT MAX PRESENTLY
MOVING SE ACROSS SE GA...AND THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR A BRIEF
TSTM THAT FIRED OVER THE N PORTION OF OUR AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR
AS WELL STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE GULF STREAM. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

PRECIP PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS WILL SHIFT FROM A COMBO OF
DIURNALLY AND DYNAMICALLY FORCED CONVECTION TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOMINATED PRECIP ON N PERIPHERY OF IRENE
CIRCULATION.

FOR TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. BEST
FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AND MID-LEVEL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS NE FL. AS FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND
IRENE EDGES CLOSER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE OVER LAND
WILL LIKELY FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY EVENING.

ON WED...E FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WITH COASTAL SHOWERS
MOVING INLAND IN CONVERGENT LINES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE AS IT WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE SE
OVER THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INLAND AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ON THU...IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE A BIT MORE NLY IN RESPONSE TO
A SECOND E U.S. UPPER TROF. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
SE COASTAL AREAS WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON NW STORM
PERIPHERY BEGINNING TO REDUCE POPS OVER OUR NW ZONES.

LONG TERM...IRENE PROGGED TO MOVE WELL E OF THE AREA. IF THIS DOES
PAN OUT...HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE SQUASHING POPS FARTHER INLAND. WITH
THIS SCENARIO...GUSTY WINDS AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE THE BIGGEST
THREATS. AS IRENE DEPARTS THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE AND SW FLOW WILL
BRING HOT TEMPS...AND HAVE GONE ABOUT 1 DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS. THERE MAY BE A TRAILING BAND OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER THE
S PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HAVE JUST KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER SE ZONES.

&&

&&

ZAPPE/PETERSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

EXACT LOCAL IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ITS EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKERS AT
INLETS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM. BEACHFRONT INTERESTS
SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO
THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEK AS WELL.

INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON IRENE.

REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S HURRICANE PLAN. ENSURE YOUR HURRICANE KIT IS
WELL STOCKED AND UP TO DATE. REVIEW THE WORKING CONDITION OF
EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT...SUCH AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERY POWERED
RADIOS. REVIEW EVACUATION ROUTES SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

MARINE INTERESTS MAY WISH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AT THIS TIME...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU WILL BE AWAY FROM YOUR BOAT.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1047 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TARBORO                 31.01N 81.81W
08/22/2011                   CAMDEN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            IN TARBORO.

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1117 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEARSON                 31.30N 82.85W
08/22/2011                   ATKINSON           GA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN PEARSON REPORTED BY CONVENIENCE STORE CLERK
            WITH POWER OUTAGES AS WELL. HAIL REPORTED BUT SIZE
            UNKNOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

ARS