Hail in Colorado, May 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND PCPN CHANCES.

THIS MORNING ARE AREA OF PCPN OVR THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST AND HAVE SEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AREA.  WL KEEP ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING AND WL ADD SOME ISOLD THUNDER. OVR THE ERN MTS THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SO WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE COULD ALSO  BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN IS VERY LOW
SO WL KEEP SILENT POPS IN THAT AREA.

AN UPR TROF WL REMAIN OVR THE WRN STATES TODAY...WITH SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA.  AT THE SFC AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVR
NERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE WITH BRING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO THE SERN CO PLAINS.  IN THE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE SERN PLAINS.  IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPR JET BEGINS NOSING INTO THE AREA...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF ALSO ENTERS SWRN CO BY MIDAFTERNOON...MOVING NE. WL
SEE PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MTS...HIGH VALLEYS AND THE I25 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREADING TO THE FAR
SERN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.   THE NAM FOCUSES PCPN ALONG THE ERN
MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AS A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN SWRLY WINDS TO THE SERN FOOTHILLS AREA
AND DRIES THINGS OUT MORE OVR HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...
PUSHING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MSTR E.  AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES OVR THE
SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...TO
AROUND 700 J/KG OVR EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 35-50 KTS BY
MIDAFTERNOON...WITH LI/S OF -1 TO -3C.  SEVERE STORM CHANCES LOOK
BEST OVR KIOWA...PROWERS...BENT AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR ARE MOST FAVORABLE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO FARTHER WEST OVR THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE WL CONTINUE MOVING NE ACRS THE AREA AND
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPR JET WL ALSO BE OVR THE AREA.  THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE OR SWRN KS
OVERNIGHT...AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW OVR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST PCPN CHANCES BEING OVR
KIOWA COUNTY AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH DEPENDING OVR
EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC LOW ENDS UP.  WL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHANCES
OVR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN BY
LATE NIGHT MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR EAST WL SEE PCPN DECREASE OR
END.

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

...CHANCE OF SOME STORMS ON TUESDAY...

.TUESDAY...NAM AND SREF DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE DAY. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PERSIST. GFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT
THE GFS TENDS TO HAVE A NORTHWARD BIAS IN SURFACE LOW POSITIONS.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE
MORNING...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING...THEN MOVING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
THE AMOUNT ON INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. TROUGH WILL
PASS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON NEAR THE BORDER...DURING TIME OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK WELL INTO
KANSAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SLIGHT RISK POSSIBLY BENDING
WESTWARD IF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO.
QUICK LOOK AT 06Z NAM HAS A GREATER THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OVERTHE MOUNTAINS...SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH AND SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW DEVELOPS OVER KANSAS WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA. THE 00Z NAM SHOWED THE 700MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PLAINS. INSTABILITY IN THE 00Z
NAM WAS NOT VERY LARGE WITH AIR ALOFT WARMING. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
GRIDS WAS TO EXTEND CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION...MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL RACE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE PLAINS ON BOTH
DAYS. TROUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING DRY...SO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
PRECIPITATION FROM ANY CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY...TROUGH WILL WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE
NORTH. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...AND WARMED
MAXIMUMS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS.  LATE TONIGHT STRATUS AT...OR IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.  THIS AFTERNOON
KALS SHOULD SEE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOWPACK OVER THE UPPER STRETCH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
RANGE FROM AROUND 120 TO 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND SUSPECT AMOUNT OF SNOW
MELT WILL INCREASE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SPELL OF COOLER AIR ALOFT
OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SLOW THE RUNOFF. LONGER RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST A STRONG TROUGH MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST...BRINGING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO
OUR WEST AS SUGGESTED IN THE EC AND SOME GFS RUNS...THEN A STRETCH
OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN
RUNOFF. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

28/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1205 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-241815-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1205 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. THE
AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER IS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM THE MONUMENT AREA...TO THE PUEBLO AREA...THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BACA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE AREA OF STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY AND BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS IS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

10/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
239 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             6 E MONUMENT            39.10N 104.76W
05/23/2011  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO DAMAGE.

&&

PJC