Hail in Colorado, May 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
130 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011

AN UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING FRIDAY
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY BEFORE PICKING UP SPEED TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MID MAY NORMALS BY FRIDAY
WITH CONTINUED WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A RETURN TO
MID MAY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.

007
&&

.AVIATION...
541 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011

FOR THE OOZ TAFS...S/W TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CO ATTM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EASTERN CO AND MOVING
NE. BETTER CHANCES AT KGLD TO SEE TSRA THAN KMCK. CURRENTLY...KGLD
IS VFR AND KMCK IS LIFR. STRATUS IS HOLDING TIGHT AT KMCK AND WILL
PROGRESS WEST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...WINDS AT KGLD WILL TURN MORE
FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LOW LEVELS AND
PRECLUDE DENSE FOG FROM MOVING IN. KMCK WILL STAY STATUS
QUO...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR OVERNIGHT. AFT 15Z AT BOTH
LOCATIONS...EXPECT CONDS TO BE VFR.

BAS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201800-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
101 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011 /201 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
OBERLIN TO GOVE KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EAST OF A NORTON TO HILL CITY KANSAS LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF A LINE FROM
OBERLIN TO GOVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2011

KSZ016-192045-
GRAHAM-
317 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR PENOKEE...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9990 3923 10012 3957 10003 3957 9986
      3954 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 196DEG 21KT 3930 9998

FOLTZ